India exported about 7.75 lakh tonnes of sugar in the 2024-25 marketing season (February–September), according to AISTA. Of this, 6.13 lakh tonnes were white sugar, 1.04 lakh tonnes refined, and 33,338 tonnes raw sugar. Major buyers included Djibouti, Somalia, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan. AISTA has urged the government to announce the 2025-26 export quota by November and maintain the same quota policy as last year.
India has made prior registration with the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) mandatory for non-basmati rice exports, a move aimed at giving the government greater control over shipments. According to stakeholders, the step will not immediately affect trade apart from adding a minimal cost. APEDA, which promotes exports of agri-products such as rice, fruits, vegetables, meat, and dairy, will now handle contract registrations for non-basmati rice exports in line with the existing process for basmati rice. Exporters will be required to pay a nominal fee of ₹8 per metric tonne, with certificates issued online. Industry sources said the measure has been introduced to strengthen monitoring of export volumes and develop a rice trade promotion fund. Suraj Agarwal, CEO of Ricevilla Group, noted that while this is only an additional procedure, it signals the government’s intent to keep closer watch on non-basmati shipments, which account for a large share of India’s overall rice exports. As the world’s largest rice exporter, India is expected to benefit from a more calibrated approach to managing both basmati and non-basmati rice trade.
At the India International Tea Convention 2025, experts urged joint efforts between government and industry to make the tea value chain more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable. Special Secretary L Satya Srinivas highlighted the need to address issues of cultivation, climate, costs, and consumption through innovation and technology. He stressed positioning tea as a sustainable, health-oriented, and aspirational beverage to boost demand. UPASI President Mathew Abraham noted India’s low per capita tea consumption (840 g) compared to other nations, calling for stronger domestic production, export development, and tapping new markets like China, Saudi Arabia, and Africa, while regaining ground in traditional ones.
After last year’s record purchases, India’s pulses imports have slowed on weak demand and falling prices. April–August imports fell 52% to $841 million from $1.76 billion a year ago, with August down 64% year-on-year. Except tur, imports of urad, yellow peas, chana, and masoor all declined sharply. Tur rose 6% to 2.92 lt. Higher domestic output and lower global prices have reduced import needs. Kharif pulses acreage is slightly higher at 118 lh, though excess rains may affect moong and urad.
India’s cotton production in 2025-26 is expected to rise to 325–340 lakh bales (vs. 312 lakh bales last year), despite reduced acreage in Gujarat and Maharashtra and rain damage in some States. Good rainfall, fewer pest attacks, and better yields are driving optimism. Acreage fell in Gujarat (20.82 lh vs. 23.66 lh) and Maharashtra (38.44 lh vs. 40.81 lh), but rose in Telangana (18.51 lh) and Karnataka (8.08 lh). South India’s crop may reach 105 lakh bales (vs. 88 lakh bales). Heavy rains in Maharashtra, Telangana, Punjab, and Haryana, plus pest issues in Andhra Pradesh, caused some losses, though traders expect only 5–6% damage overall. Prices, however, are likely to remain bearish amid record imports and weak demand.
Punjab’s rice output may dip as floods damaged paddy across 2 lakh hectares, though yields in unaffected areas could improve. Last year, the State produced 14.36 mt of rice, including basmati. Non-basmati crops near rivers bore the brunt of the floods, prompting Punjab to seek Central aid to prepare fields for rabi crops. Punjab remains key to the Centre’s 46.35 mt procurement target, contributing 11.61 mt last year. Despite calls for crop diversification, farmers prefer rice as assured MSP procurement makes it more profitable than alternatives.
The 2025 kharif outlook for nutricereals (Shree Anna) is broadly positive, led by maize, which has gained from strong demand in ethanol and livestock feed. Nationally, coarse cereal acreage rose by 12.09 lh to 91.71 lh, with maize alone expanding 10.32 lh to 94.62 lh. States like Karnataka and Telangana saw maize acreage surge, while jowar and ragi posted modest gains and bajra acreage slipped. Maharashtra showed sharp maize expansion but continued declines in jowar and bajra, while Gujarat’s bajra crop was hit by floods. India’s maize output is pegged at a record 43 mt in 2025-26, up 2% on higher acreage, though yields are slightly lower. Prices remain firm at ₹2,420–2,590 a quintal, supported by feed and ethanol demand, with strong prospects ahead.
Gujarat, producing over half of India’s groundnuts, is projected to hit a record 66 lakh tonnes this year — 26% higher than last year’s 52.2 lakh tonnes. Groundnut sowing rose 15% to 22 lakh hectares, largely in Saurashtra, though floods in North Gujarat and Kutch may impact yields. Last year, the State procured 12.22 lakh tonnes worth ₹8,295 crore at MSP, and similar purchases are planned this season, with farmer registration extended till September 22
India's kharif rice production is expected to fall to around 120-121 million tonnes this year, slightly down from 121.85 million tonnes last year due to heavy rains and floods impacting yields in some states. A urea shortage, especially in August, may also cause a minor dip in production. While overall crop conditions remain favorable, Punjab is expected to see at least a 20% reduction in output. Kharif paddy acreage has risen by about 5% compared to last year, with Uttar Pradesh, the largest rice producer, seeing a significant 13.5% increase in area. However, the floods in Punjab and other states like Telangana, Karnataka, and Maharashtra may further affect production, particularly basmati rice. The overall production is still expected to reach 135 million tonnes, with good conditions in the southern states potentially offsetting the losses. West Bengal aims for a record production of 4.64 million tonnes, while Karnataka and Telangana face challenges due to heavy rains and fertilizer shortages.
China has suspended soybean purchases from the US, opting for costlier imports from Brazil due to a 20% extra tariff on American shipments. Despite usually buying US soybeans from September to January, China has not booked forward sales for September-October. Analysts say this pressure explains President Trump’s softer trade stance with Beijing. In 2023-24, China—importing 61% of global soybeans—bought 25 mt from the US, but exports fell to $13.2 billion. USDA projects a 117 mt US crop in 2025-26, yet exports may drop 48% if China delays purchases. Farmers warn both US growers and Chinese consumers are losing as costs rise, with Brazil expected to produce 176 mt while China’s imports may hit a record 112 mt.
India’s oilmeal exports fell 2.4% to 15.16 lt in April–July 2025-26 (15.54 lt last year) due to lower shipments of soyabean, rapeseed, and castorseed meal. July exports declined 7% y-o-y to 4.22 lt. Soyabean meal exports dropped to 6.76 lt (6.92 lt), rapeseed to 7.40 lt (7.58 lt), and castorseed meal to 85,032 tonnes (1 lt). Despite this, rapeseed meal demand surged, driven by China’s sharp rise in imports to 2.77 lt (12,011 tonnes last year), aided by India’s price edge at $195/tonne vs Hamburg’s $236. SEA urged lifting the ban on de-oiled rice bran exports (in place since July 2023, now extended till Sept 30, 2025), citing falling prices. Major buyers were South Korea (1.87 lt vs 3.22 lt) and China (2.83 lt vs 16,416 tonnes), with rapeseed meal dominating shipments.
Coconut oil prices have nearly tripled in Asia within two years, driven by supply shortages, erratic weather, and rising demand, especially from India. Consumers are switching to cheaper alternatives like sunflower oil, reserving coconut oil for select dishes. Global output remains stagnant at around 3.67 million tons as aging trees, underinvestment, and climate extremes hit yields. Producers expect prices to stay above $2,000 a ton, far higher than past averages, while strong global demand for coconut water, copra, milk, and skincare products continues to strain supplies. The surge has widened the premium over palm kernel oil and could push up prices of alternative edible oils as well.
Stronger demand from blenders, upcountry buyers, and exporters lifted tea prices at Coonoor auctions, with high-priced and better liquoring CTC leaf dearer by ₹3–₹4. Rains in the Nilgiris are hampering plucking and processing, but intermittent showers may boost the next season’s crop. Of 17.41 lakh kg leaf teas offered, 77% sold; dust grades saw 80% sales out of 4.89 lakh kg. In orthodox leaf, better medium sorts were steady to ₹2 dearer, while whole leaf fell ₹5–₹6. Brokens were firm to ₹3 dearer; secondaries/fannings fell ₹2–₹3. In CTC dust, high-priced teas were steady to ₹3 dearer, medium sorts eased ₹1–₹2. Orthodox dust fell ₹4–₹5; secondaries and finer dust held steady.
Cotton acreage in Gujarat, India’s top producing state, has dropped 13% to 20.35 lakh hectares as many farmers shift to more profitable crops like groundnut and soybean. The switch is driven by higher MSP for oilseeds, the ability to grow a second crop post-harvest, and labour issues during cotton harvest. However, this decline is balanced by increased sowing in Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and northern states. As of August 1, India’s total cotton acreage stood at 105.87 lh, slightly below last year. Telangana saw a rise to 43.28 lakh acres, while Karnataka's area rose 17% to 7.5 lh due to timely rains.
After hitting record highs in July, coconut oil and copra prices have started to decline, dropping by ₹6 and ₹10 per kg, respectively. Wholesale prices in Kochi now stand at ₹379 for coconut oil and ₹240 for copra, down from ₹393 and ₹261. The fall is due to increased copra arrivals from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Retail coconut oil prices remain high at ₹450–500 per kg, but a further dip is expected as traders offload stocks. Despite recent cuts in import duty on other edible oils, coconut oil prices remained mostly unaffected. However, high retail prices have pushed consumers toward cheaper options like palmolein, sunflower, and blended oils. This shift may persist even with the recent price correction, which could benefit the industry long-term. Ahead of Onam, the Kerala government will distribute coconut oil at a subsidised ₹349/litre through Supplyco outlets, in partnership with Kerafed.
A farmers and traders association has urged the Centre to curb cheap pulse imports to stabilise prices and encourage higher sowing. Sunil Kumar Baldeva, President of the Agri Farmer and Trade Association, said imports from Russia and Canada have created an oversupply, particularly of yellow peas priced below $400/tonne, which is hurting local markets. The Centre’s move to extend duty-free imports of tur, yellow peas, and urad until March 2026 has triggered a steep price drop. India imported a record 6.63 mt of pulses in FY25, with yellow peas—previously not imported—making up 2.9 mt (45%). The duty-free policy has led to a crash in domestic prices: chana fell from ₹8,000 to ₹6,200/quintal, tur from ₹11,000 to ₹6,700, and yellow peas from ₹4,100 to ₹3,250. As a result, tur acreage dropped 8% to 34.9 lakh hectares by July-end despite a normal monsoon.
India’s tea exports grew 17% in value to $218.95 million in Q1 FY25, driven by strong demand from traditional markets. June alone saw a 32% rise to $83.24 million. In rupee terms, Q1 exports rose 20% to ₹1,873.72 crore. Despite geopolitical tensions, exports to Iran and CIS nations remained steady. UPASI’s Cherian M George attributed the rise to global supply-demand shifts and strong domestic production, which helped balance local prices. Santosh Kumar of Harrisons Malayalam noted good demand for quality orthodox teas from Europe and the Middle East. In 2024-25, tea exports rose 2.82% in volume to 257.80 million kg and 16% in value to ₹7,502.27 crore. North India led the growth, while South India saw a volume dip but a rise in value. Orthodox tea producer N Lakshmanan Chettiar highlighted the need for quality improvement and automation due to labour challenges.
India’s oilmeal exports dipped marginally by 0.72% to 10.94 lakh tonnes in Q1FY26, despite a decline in soyabean meal shipments. Rapeseed meal exports, however, rose to 5.31 lt (5.23 lt last year), with China emerging as a major buyer, importing 1.80 lt versus just 7,000 tonnes last year. SEA attributed this spike to competitive Indian pricing — $201/tonne in May and $198 in mid-July, well below Hamburg’s rates — and strong demand for mustard oil, boosting crushing activity. Other key importers included South Korea (1.45 lt), Bangladesh (1.26 lt), Germany, and France. Kharif oilseed sowing stood at 137.27 lh as of July 11, slightly below last year’s 139.82 lh, despite timely rains.
Malaysia’s palm oil production is projected to grow by a modest 0.5% to 19.5 million tonnes in 2025–26, after a 1.6% decline in 2024–25, driven by favourable weather in key states like Sarawak, Sabah, and Johor, according to BMI. The Malaysian Met Department forecasts normal to slightly below-normal rainfall till September 2025, with above-normal rains expected during the North-East monsoon. However, the sector continues to face acute labour shortages, with foreign workers making up 80% of the workforce. Replanting has also lagged, with only 2% of the area covered in 2024 against a 4–5% target. Despite the negligible production rise, India—sourcing 40% of its palm oil from Malaysia—is more impacted by price than by output volume. Malaysia has responded with a policy revamp, raising windfall levies and revising crude palm oil export duties.
Heavy rains in North India have dampened pepper demand, keeping prices steady at ₹666 for ungarbled and ₹686 for MG1 at Kochi. According to IPSTA's Kishore Shamji, domestic prices are under pressure due to slow upcountry demand and cheaper imported pepper from Sri Lanka and others, available at ₹625–650. Imports hit 7,000 tonnes in May–June, including 1,100 tonnes from Sri Lanka. Global market sentiment was also hit by US tariffs, reducing Vietnam's exports by 1.37%. India, a major importer from Vietnam for value-added products, may benefit as Sri Lanka's crop is delayed. Indian harvest prospects are good due to favourable weather in the South, prompting calls to boost acreage.
U.S. coffee importers are rushing to bring in Brazilian coffee before a new 50% tariff takes effect on August 1, imposed by the Trump administration. Traders are rerouting shipments mid-journey and diverting stocks from Canada and Mexico to avoid the tariff. Brazil supplies a third of U.S. coffee, and prices are already rising. Importers warn the tariff will significantly increase costs, with some already adjusting wholesale prices. Coffee chains like Starbucks, Dunkin', and Tim Hortons rely heavily on Brazilian beans. If the tariff stays, global trade flows may shift, with Brazilian coffee heading to Europe and Asia instead. The National Coffee Association has requested an exemption, calling coffee vital to American life and the economy.
Good liquoring CTC dust teas saw a price boost at Kochi auctions (Sale 28) due to strong blender demand, with 64% of the 6.65 lakh kg offered sold. Average prices rose by ₹2 to ₹145/kg. Some export interest was noted. Orthodox dust remained weak, while orthodox leaf grades, especially whole leaf and brokens, were firm to dearer with 81% of 2.15 lakh kg sold. CTC leaf prices declined amid weak export demand and high withdrawals.
Edible oil imports declined by 8.78% to 92.08 lakh tonnes during November–June of the 2024–25 oil year, mainly due to lower palm and sunflower oil shipments. Palm oil imports fell to 42.85 lt from 57.63 lt, and sunflower oil to 18.92 lt from 24.63 lt. Soyabean oil imports rose to 30.3 lt from 18.68 lt. June saw a rise in palm and sunflower oil imports compared to May. SEA noted 3.5–4 lt of refined oil also came from Nepal. SEA urged the government to release 14 lt each of soyabean and rapeseed stocks held by agencies to control prices before the festive season. Good monsoon and early sowing boosted kharif oilseed acreage by 12.3%, led by groundnut and soyabean. Indonesia and Malaysia were key palm oil suppliers; Argentina and Brazil led in soyabean oil; Russia and Ukraine in sunflower oil.
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) sees strong demand for its stocks amid improved mill buying and low private trade inventories. CCI has sold 67.09 lakh bales so far in the 2024–25 season after procuring over 1 crore bales at MSP. With CCI being the main stockholder, traders and mills are actively buying as fresh arrivals are expected only by October. Prices have risen to ₹57,000 per candy from ₹55,000 levels. Analysts say the market has turned bullish due to CCI's earlier price cuts, though yarn demand remains subdued. CCI has sold over 65% of its stock, and season-end cotton stocks are projected at 55.59 lakh bales — 84% higher than last year, due to a crop revision to 311.40 lakh bales.
The prices of good liquoring teas in CTC dust saw an uptick at the Kochi auctions, driven by strong demand from blenders. In Sale 28, these teas were firm to dearer by ₹1 to ₹2, with blenders accounting for 64 per cent of the 6,64,975 kg sold. According to auctioneers Forbes, Ewart & Figgis, the average price realisation for CTC dust rose by ₹2 to ₹145, compared to ₹143 in the previous week. There was also some export interest from Kerala Loose Tea traders and upcountry buyers. On the other hand, the orthodox dust market remained barely steady and showed signs of easing, with 9,000 kg on offer and a sales percentage of 80 per cent.
India’s agriculture system faces low productivity and farmer incomes, affecting around 100 million small and marginal farmers (SMFs) and leaving them highly vulnerable. To shift from subsistence to market-oriented farming, SMFs—who lacked surplus, skills, and market knowledge—were consolidated into Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs). Introduced in the early 2000s, FPOs aimed to boost incomes through collective bargaining and better market access. The 10,000 FPO policy accelerated this effort, with over 33,000 FPOs now registered. However, 66% are under 4 years old, generating only ₹700–800 annually per member—insufficient for strong engagement. Many FPOs stagnate after 5 years, with revenue per member flatlining and member participation dropping to 20–30% once they reach ₹25–45 lakh in annual revenue.
India’s tea production rose by nearly 40% in May 2025 to 130.6 million kg (mkg), driven by favourable weather. North India saw a 32% rise to 104.37 mkg, while South India’s output jumped 88% to 26.23 mkg. Assam’s production increased 24% to 62.59 mkg, and West Bengal’s was up 47% at 38.27 mkg. Tamil Nadu led the South with a 90% rise to 18.77 mkg; Kerala’s output nearly doubled, though Karnataka saw a slight dip. Cumulative output for Jan–May stood at 336.22 mkg, up 26% year-on-year. CTC teas dominated at 112.29 mkg, followed by orthodox (16.76 mkg) and green teas (1.55 mkg).
West Bengal is targeting record paddy production in 2025-26, aiming to surpass last year’s all-time high of 256 lakh tonnes. The sowing target is set at 42 lakh hectares, up from 41.5 lh last year. “Around 3 lh has already been sown. With early rains and timely support, we’re confident of achieving 100% of the target by July-end,” said Pradip Mazumdar, Minister of Panchayat and Rural Development. Paddy sowing in Bengal, India’s top rice producer, runs from late June to mid-September (kharif) and resumes in winter (rabi), with 76 lt produced during the last rabi season. The State credits its success to the efforts of small and marginal farmers, backed by government support. Nationally, early monsoons have boosted kharif sowing. As of July 4, total sown area rose 11.1% YoY, with foodgrains up 18.3%, pulses 35.2%, and cereals 14.2%, according to CareEdge Ratings.
Kerala gears up to ensure ample coconut oil supply for Onam by boosting copra procurement despite rising prices and shortages, Agriculture Minister P. Prasad said. Through Kerafed, the state is sourcing coconuts from key districts at ₹1 above the Coconut Development Board’s price. Tenders for 500 tonnes from the open market will also be floated. A 40% drop in South India's coconut production and quality issues due to rains in Tamil Nadu have added pressure. With retail coconut oil prices touching ₹450/litre, demand has dipped. However, prices may fall as fresh stocks arrive from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
Soyabean oil prices have surged over 30% in 2025, outperforming gold, silver, and copper—driven largely by the US EPA’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for 2026–27. Only cobalt has risen more (37%) due to Congo’s export ban. In contrast, soyameal prices have dropped nearly 14% since January. Research agency BMI noted diverging trends in the soy complex: soy oil futures rose 11.8% month-on-month in June, while meal prices fell 8.1%. EPA’s proposed changes—like tighter rules on imported feedstocks—are expected to boost domestic soy oil use in biofuels by 250 million gallons/year. The USDA expects higher demand for US-grown oil, with current CBOT soy oil futures at 54.55 cents/lb and Mumbai import prices at $1,180/tonne, up from $1,054 last year. Experts say the price rally is largely due to RFS policy changes, not exports. This is positive for US soybeans, with futures likely to rise amid lower acreage forecasts for 2025–26. While soy oil could touch 60 cents/lb, bearish trends in soymeal persist due to China’s goal to reduce soy content in animal feed and ongoing US-China trade tensions.
Pulses acreage lags in Karnataka as farmers shift to maize and cotton amid surplus rainfall. By July 5, 50.57 lakh hectares (lh) had been sown — 61% of the kharif 2025 target. Maize gained sharply, rising 14.6% y-o-y to 13.98 lh, 68% above normal. In contrast, pulses acreage fell 13% y-o-y; tur area dropped 21% to 9.88 lh, though still above the normal 6.71 lh. Urad area remained flat, and moong rose slightly. Lower pulse prices are pushing farmers towards more profitable crops. Oilseeds too are trailing, with groundnut and soybean down. However, cotton and sugarcane have gained, along with a marginal rise in tobacco.
India can more than double its maize output to 86 million tonnes by 2047 from the current 42.3 million tonnes, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said at FICCI's 11th maize summit. He stressed the need for high-yield, non-GM seed varieties with higher starch content (targeting 72% vs. current 65–70%) to boost productivity beyond the current 3.7 tonnes/hectare. While ICAR has developed 265 varieties, including 77 hybrids, more innovation is needed. He urged states like Punjab and Haryana to shift from paddy to maize. Rising maize prices, driven by the ethanol blending goal, benefit farmers, though poultry players raised feed cost concerns. Chouhan also called for stricter action against substandard agri inputs.
Soyabean oil prices have surged over 30% in 2025, outperforming gold and other commodities, driven by the US EPA’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets and policy changes favoring domestic biofuel feedstocks. Only cobalt has gained more due to Congo’s export ban. In contrast, soyabean meal prices have fallen nearly 14% since January. Research agency BMI noted contrasting trends in the soyabean complex: oil futures rose 11.8% m-o-m in June, while meal prices dropped 8.1%. The EPA’s new targets raise biomass-based diesel use, boosting soyabean oil demand by 250 million gallons/year. A recent US Senate bill further restricts clean fuel credits to North American feedstock. Soyabean meal and oil prices stood at $390/tonne and $1,180/tonne (C&F Mumbai) respectively last week. Analysts see soyabean oil benefiting from higher crude prices and bullish biofuel policies. Meanwhile, abundant supply forecasts may cap gains, though a lower 2025-26 acreage could support higher soyabean prices. Soyabean meal remains under pressure due to weak Chinese demand, policy targets to cut soyameal content in feed, and ongoing trade tensions.
Global palm oil prices are expected to remain stable in 2025, supported by strong demand from India and China and biofuel policies in the US and Indonesia, despite a projected rise in global output. Fitch’s BMI has kept its 2025 average CPO price forecast at MYR 4,150/tonne, expecting prices to range between MYR 3,800–4,000. Global production is set to rise 2.4% y-o-y to 80.6 mt, with Indonesia and Malaysia contributing 47.5 mt and 19.5 mt, respectively. While Malaysia saw a 5.9% drop in Q1 output, production rebounded in April–May, easing global supply tightness. Rising inventories and subdued export demand—especially from Indonesia—are likely to cap price increases. Global palm oil consumption is forecast to grow 1% to 78.3 mt, while the production surplus may widen to 2.3 mt. In India, consumption is expected to rise 1.6% y-o-y, with beginning stocks for 2025–26 falling 26.7% to 1.9 mt.
The Iran-Israel ceasefire boosted tea prices at Kochi auctions, especially for orthodox varieties, driven by strong overseas demand. In Sale 27, whole leaf teas were dearer by ₹5–10/kg, with a 95% sale of the 2.7 lakh kg offered. Exporters to West Asia and CIS remained active. Average price rose ₹3 to ₹183. In CTC leaf, limited good brokens fetched better prices, selling 63% of 39,000 kg, while medium and plainer types were weak. The CTC dust market declined due to poor local demand, with only 84% of 5.96 lakh kg sold and average price down ₹2 to ₹143. Orthodox dust also saw lower prices, with exporters and upcountry buyers active.
India's palm oil imports jumped 61% in June to an 11-month high of 953,000 tonnes, driven by low domestic stocks and a $100/ton price advantage over soy and sunflower oils. This helped lift total edible oil imports by 30% to 1.53 million tonnes, the highest since November. Dealers expect robust palm oil imports to continue amid attractive pricing and rising production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Meanwhile, soyoil imports fell 9% to 363,000 tonnes, sunflower oil rose 18% to 216,000 tonnes, and Nepal’s edible oil shipments halved to 75,000 tonnes.
India procured 531.13 lakh tonnes (lt) of rice for buffer stocks in the nine months till June 2025, slightly higher than 525.48 lt last year. This includes over 68 lt from the rabi crop. With annual rice needs at around 410 lt and a buffer norm of 135 lt, the government now holds surplus stock, including over 321 lt in carryover and unmilled paddy. To manage this, subsidised rice is being diverted to ethanol distilleries at ₹22.50/kg. India harvested a record 149.07 million tonnes (mt) of rice in 2024–25, with 121.85 mt from the kharif season. Kharif procurement is now complete, and rabi purchases began April 1 with a 71.7 lt target. Key contributors to the increase include West Bengal (19.91 lt), Odisha (51.30 lt), Andhra Pradesh (24.63 lt), Tamil Nadu (24.37 lt), and Telangana (71.25 lt). However, procurement declined in Punjab (116.13 lt) and Chhattisgarh (70 lt).
Farmgate prices of robusta coffee, India’s main variety, have dropped by about one-third in three months, mirroring global trends. Robusta cherry fell from ₹12,200–13,200 to ₹9,400–10,300 per 50-kg bag, and robusta parchment from ₹22,200–22,900 to ₹16,700–17,000. Arabica prices also declined, but less sharply. Arabica parchment eased to ₹25,200–26,000 from ₹26,500–27,000, and arabica cherry to ₹13,500–14,200 from ₹15,200–17,000. According to KGF’s H T Mohan Kumar, domestic prices have dropped from over ₹13,000 to around ₹9,000 per bag due to global cues.
Indian onions are losing out in global markets to cheaper supplies from Pakistan and China, as buyers have adapted to alternatives due to past Indian export curbs. Pakistan is offering onions at $170/tonne CNF to Sri Lanka, compared to India’s $330. Traders say Pakistan’s crop is larger and benefits from currency fluctuations. Chinese onions, priced at $250/tonne, are also gaining traction. Exporters note that demand for Indian onions has dropped, including for the once-dominant Rose variety, now facing competition from Myanmar. Though India removed the 20% export duty in April 2025, exports remain sluggish. Domestic arrivals are strong, with prices stable at ₹14–23/kg, pressured further by a bumper 2024-25 crop estimated at 30.77 million tonnes versus 24.27 mt last year.
During 2023-24, Punjab produced 71,490 tonnes of litchi, contributing 12.39% to India’s total litchi production. For the first time, India exported 1.5 tonnes of litchi from Punjab to Doha and Dubai this month, according to the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), an arm of the Commerce Ministry. As part of efforts to boost horticultural exports, APEDA facilitated the dispatch of the first consignment of rose-scented litchi—1 tonne from Pathankot to Doha on June 23, and 0.5 tonne to Dubai. This initiative was carried out in collaboration with Punjab’s Department of Horticulture and the Lulu Group.
The area under monsoon-sown rice has jumped 58 per cent from a year ago to 1.32 million hectares (3.3 million acres) as of Friday, according to the Agriculture Ministry. Pulses have been planted on 944,000 hectares, marking a 42 per cent increase over the same period last year. Cotton acreage has also risen to 3.1 million hectares, up 7.4 per cent year-on-year. The India Meteorological Department reported that rainfall during the ongoing monsoon season, which spans from June to September, has been 2 per cent above normal so far. Sowing typically begins in late May, with harvesting starting around late September.
The government has banned the import of watermelon seeds to support local seed producers after a surge in imports last year. India imported 83,812 tonnes in 2023-24—double the three-year average. Domestic production, at 40,000 tonnes, falls short of the annual demand of 60,000–65,000 tonnes, leading to reliance on cheaper imported seeds. Laghu Udyog Bharati pushed for the ban, citing threats to self-reliance and farmer livelihoods. Farmers argue imports have hurt traditional seed growers and employment, especially in rain-fed areas. Imported seeds are 15–20% cheaper but criticized for degrading soil quality due to high chemical input. The ban is expected to raise local seed prices and boost domestic production and rural employment. Watermelon is mainly grown in states like UP, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra, while China remains the world’s top producer.
Pulses imports fell 37% to $492 million in April-May FY25 from $782 million a year ago, as purchases of yellow peas and chickpeas slowed, according to Commerce Ministry data. Weak demand and last year’s high imports contributed to the decline, said Rahul Chauhan of I Grain India. He also cited a favourable monsoon and improved domestic production prospects. Pulses sowing rose 42% till June 20, led by moong (4.43 lh vs 2.67 lh), urad (1.39 lh vs 0.62 lh), and other pulses. However, tur acreage was slightly down at 2.48 lh (2.61 lh). Yellow peas imports fell sharply to 1.31 lt (6.86 lt), and chickpeas to 15,536 tonnes (29,948 tonnes). However, imports rose for urad (1.5 lt vs 1.39 lt), lentils (1.37 lt vs 1.13 lt), and tur (1.95 lt vs 1.22 lt). The government has extended the duty-free window for tur, urad, and yellow peas till March 2026.
Maize and cotton acreage in Karnataka has increased in the ongoing kharif 2025 season. As of June 20, maize area rose 10% to 9.92 lakh hectares (lh) and cotton by 39% to 3.35 lh compared to last year. Paddy and bajra saw slight increases, while jowar and ragi lagged behind. Overall cereal acreage rose to 11.61 lh, driven by maize. Pulses acreage declined to 9.75 lh, with tur and urad down but greengram slightly up. Oilseed acreage fell, with lower sowing of groundnut and soybean. Among commercial crops, sugarcane rose to 5.18 lh, while tobacco dipped slightly.
Tur dal prices have dropped below ₹100/kg in key producing regions like Kalaburgi and Latur the lowest in nearly three years — offering relief to consumers. Prices have fallen nearly 50% from last year due to weak demand and ample supplies, driven by increased imports of tur and yellow peas. Average-quality tur dal is selling at ₹89–90/kg, while top quality is around ₹104–105/kg. Tur imports surged 59% to 12.23 lakh tonnes in FY25, and the duty-free import window is extended till March 2026. Market sentiment remains weak, but prices may rise ahead of the festive season as demand improves. Farmers are also offloading stocks with the new season starting. The availability of cheaper yellow peas is impacting tur dal consumption. While the MSP for tur has been raised to ₹8,000/quintal, farmer groups say the procurement period should also have been extended. As of June 23, 2025, the average retail price stood at ₹122.45/kg, according to government data.
India's basmati rice exports to Iran may reach last year’s level of 0.86 million tonnes, driven by continued demand and discounted pricing. However, about 100,000 tonnes are currently stranded at Kandla and Mundra ports due to the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Exporters face uncertainty as Iran has advised shipments be made at exporters’ risk. Iran typically halts rice import permits during July–September to protect local crops, with new permits expected only from October. Despite reduced imports in recent years due to higher domestic non-basmati production, Iran still prefers Indian basmati rice. Export realisation from Iran remains lower ($881/tonne) than the overall average ($980/tonne), due to Iranian buyers' strong negotiating power and quality variations. Experts say the trade now requires closer scrutiny and better risk management.
Early kharif sowing data shows a rise in overall crop acreage by 1.5 lakh hectares (lh) compared to last year, reaching 89.29 lh as of June 13. Most crops have seen higher coverage, except maize, arhar, and groundnut, which are slightly lower but expected to recover with the monsoon's progress after June 15. Sugarcane area stands at 55.07 lh, paddy at 4.53 lh (up from 4 lh), pulses at 3.07 lh (up from 2.6 lh), and oilseeds at 2.05 lh (up from 1.5 lh). Nutri/coarse cereals are stable, while cotton, groundnut, and arhar have seen slight declines.
India’s coconut product exports grew 25% in FY25, earning ₹4,349 crore, up from ₹3,469 crore last year. Activated carbon led the surge, with ₹2,799 crore in revenue from 1.76 lakh tonnes. However, producers remain concerned as rising costs, driven by expensive charcoal, have pushed Indian prices to $3,600–3,700/tonne—far above China’s $2,500–2,700—raising fears of losing global market share.
Every container entering the country must be supported by thorough risk assessment, logistical planning, and cost control. In 2025, the global fertiliser trade stands at a critical juncture, influenced by geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, evolving demand patterns, and increasing government interventions. The Indian fertiliser market, valued at $45.89 billion in 2025, is projected to reach $62.83 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.49 per cent. For importers and international traders—particularly those focused on India, the world’s largest fertiliser importer—understanding these shifting dynamics is not just advantageous but vital for long-term viability. India’s fertiliser market is vast and expanding steadily at an annual rate of 6–7 per cent, driven by a population exceeding 1.4 billion and mounting pressure on agricultural land productivity. Consequently, fertiliser demand continues to rise. Despite its strong agricultural base, India remains heavily reliant on imports for essential nutrients. Urea, for instance, is still significantly subsidised and partially imported, even as the government takes steps toward self-sufficiency through investments in new domestic plants and the promotion of nano urea to reduce dependence on imports.
In 2024-25, among the top five agricultural items exported to Afghanistan, oil meals led with exports worth $27.37 million, followed by tobacco at $15.91 million, with both commodities recording positive growth. However, exports of spices ($11.92 million), sugar ($8.69 million), and processed fruits including juices ($5.51 million) declined compared to the previous fiscal. India’s overall agri exports to Afghanistan, which continued even under the Taliban-led government despite a lack of formal recognition, dropped by over 20 per cent to $82.6 million in FY25. The fall is attributed to the closure of the Pakistan transit route and potential disruptions via Iran.
Indian tea exporters are concerned after Israel’s recent strikes on Iran, a key market for India’s orthodox tea. With Iran being the second-largest buyer after Iraq, accounting for 30–35 million kg annually, exporters fear disruptions if tensions escalate or fresh US sanctions are imposed. Orthodox tea exports have seen steady growth, contributing to India’s nearly 10% rise in overall tea exports to 254.67 million kg in 2024. However, the ongoing conflict threatens trade routes via the Red Sea and Suez Canal and may lead to falling prices. Orthodox leaf prices have already dropped ₹8/kg in Kochi auctions amid fresh arrivals.
India’s coffee exports have crossed $1.01 billion in the first five months of 2025, up 30% in value despite lower volumes (1.8 lakh tonnes vs 2.1 lakh tonnes last year). The European Union’s recent classification of India as a low-risk country under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is expected to further boost shipments. The EUDR, effective from December 30, 2025, mandates due diligence to ensure products like coffee are not sourced from deforested areas. India's low-risk status eases compliance, reducing the burden on exporters. European buyers are already seeking EUDR-compliant coffee from July 1. A Coffee Board app is expected to help stakeholders meet these requirements.
India’s agricultural transformation is central to national development goals. Though over 50% of Indians work in agriculture, it contributes only 18% to GDP, unlike the service sector, which employs just 12% but contributes over 50%. The government aims to boost farm efficiency, ensure food security, and shift excess agricultural labour to higher-paying urban jobs. This transition demands greater productivity through technology and skilled project management. Certified project managers are already helping optimize land, labour, and capital, driving efficiency, sustainability, and innovation in the sector.
India’s sugar output for the 2025–26 season (October to September) is under threat as early data indicates a marginal decline in sugarcane acreage. While the drop in cultivated area appears slight, adverse weather conditions, inconsistent rainfall, and ongoing agricultural challenges could further impact production, potentially reducing it from 2024–25 levels. As of the first week of May, sugarcane acreage stood at 5.31 million hectares, slightly down from 5.34 million hectares a year ago. This crop will be processed in the upcoming season. Uttar Pradesh, the country’s leading sugar-producing state, reported a decrease in cane area to 2.79 million hectares as of May 8, compared to 2.88 million hectares last year. Although weekly figures in UP often vary from final estimates due to mandi arrivals and mill requirements, the Agriculture Ministry’s final data for 2024–25 also showed a decline to 2.59 million hectares from 2.65 million hectares in 2023–24.
