India's wheat procurement for the 2026-27 marketing season has reached 34.99 million tonnes (MT) as of May 31, exceeding the government's target of 34.5 MT and recording a 17% increase compared to the same period last year. This strong performance has significantly improved the nation's food security reserves, with Central Pool wheat stocks rising to 51.3 MT, well above the required buffer norm of 27.5 MT. Madhya Pradesh emerged as the top contributor, with procurement rising 34% to 10.44 MT, while Punjab and Haryana also recorded substantial procurement volumes. Despite weather-related challenges, including unseasonal rains and hailstorms, the government accepted a large share of wheat under relaxed quality norms to support farmers. Additionally, India's wheat production is estimated at a record 120.66 MT, reflecting the resilience of the agricultural sector and ensuring adequate supplies for domestic consumption and strategic reserves.
The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has restarted cotton sales from the 2025-26 season while reducing prices by ₹2,300 per candy (356 kg) in response to declining global cotton prices. This follows an earlier reduction of ₹700 per candy announced last week. Market activity remained subdued despite the price correction, with only around 1,200 bales sold on Friday. Industry participants continue to adopt a cautious approach due to the mismatch between cotton and yarn prices, which has affected purchasing decisions. CCI has procured approximately 105 lakh bales during the current season and is estimated to hold around 32 lakh bales in stock. The latest pricing revision reflects changing global market dynamics, including improved weather conditions in major cotton-producing regions and lower crude oil prices. The move is expected to support market balance while helping the cotton sector respond to evolving demand and supply conditions.
India’s rice export sector is facing fresh challenges as China continues rejecting non-basmati rice consignments over alleged GMO contamination concerns. Trade sources claim that nearly 70 shipments have been rejected, including several consignments turned away recently. The Indian government has strongly denied these allegations, clarifying that no genetically modified rice cultivation has been approved in India. Authorities including GEAC and ICAR have confirmed that no commercial GM rice production is taking place in the country. Despite inspections and certification processes, exporters say Chinese authorities are still rejecting shipments, causing uncertainty in the rice trade market and leading many exporters to hold back containers voluntarily. Industry experts believe the issue may also be linked to ongoing trade tensions and increasing competition in the global rice market.
India is expected to achieve a record-breaking foodgrain production of 376.56 million tonnes during the 2025-26 crop year, according to the government’s latest estimates. Strong growth in rice, wheat, pulses, and maize production is driving this increase, showcasing the strength of India’s agricultural sector despite weather-related challenges in some regions. Rice production is projected to touch an all-time high of 154.02 million tonnes, while wheat output is expected to reach 120.66 million tonnes. Pulses production is also estimated to rise significantly, supported by higher gram and lentil output. Maize production is forecast to increase sharply, reflecting strong crop performance across multiple regions. The positive outlook highlights India’s growing importance in global food supply chains and export markets, creating strong opportunities for international buyers and agricultural trade partners.
The total area under summer crops has increased by 3% this year, reflecting positive growth in seasonal farming activities. However, acreage under paddy and moong crops has dipped, indicating shifting cultivation patterns and changing farmer preferences. Despite this decline, other summer crops have shown healthy expansion, contributing to overall agricultural growth and stronger production prospects.
The ongoing harvest season has witnessed mixed price movements across major rabi crops in Indian mandis. According to Agmarknet data, wheat prices averaged ₹2,456 per quintal against the MSP of ₹2,585, while chana traded at ₹5,656 compared to the MSP of ₹5,875. In contrast, mustard prices surged nearly 14% above MSP to ₹7,081 per quintal, reflecting strong demand and positive market sentiment. Barley prices stayed slightly above MSP, whereas maize prices declined sharply by around 21%. Masur prices also remained marginally higher than the benchmark support price. Officials stated that slight deviations below MSP are a part of normal market behaviour and help maintain supply-demand balance without creating excessive procurement pressure.
India’s coffee output for the 2026–27 crop season is expected to witness a decline of nearly 4%, according to recent estimates by the USDA’s Mumbai office. Production is projected at around 6.14 million bags, mainly impacted by lower crop yields caused by adverse weather conditions across key coffee-growing regions. The report highlights a reduction in both arabica and robusta coffee production compared to the previous season. Market participants are closely monitoring the situation as lower output could influence coffee prices, export volumes, and global supply trends in the coming months.
India’s oilseed industry is witnessing positive momentum as higher global edible oil prices and tighter imports continue to support domestic demand. According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), mustard prices are trading well above the MSP, benefiting farmers and reducing procurement pressure on the government. Record rapeseed-mustard crushing in April 2026 has also improved edible oil availability across the country. Industry experts believe that strong market sentiment and better price realization may encourage farmers to expand oilseed acreage in the upcoming kharif season, further strengthening India’s agricultural and edible oil sector.
Stakeholders from the basmati rice industry, including exporters, millers, and farmer groups, have proposed the creation of a dedicated Basmati Promotion Board under the Commerce Ministry. The initiative aims to provide focused support for the basmati sector by promoting exports, maintaining product authenticity, improving farmer incomes, and strengthening India’s premium GI-tagged basmati rice presence in global markets. Industry experts believe the board could help address rising cultivation costs, quality concerns, and export challenges while ensuring better growth opportunities for farmers and exporters alike.
India is expected to strengthen its presence in the global wheat market as geopolitical tensions and weather-related disruptions impact supplies across key producing countries. According to the USDA, India’s wheat export forecast for 2026–27 has increased significantly, with export potential estimated at around 2 million tonnes. Declining production estimates in major wheat-producing regions, along with rising global grain prices, are creating favorable opportunities for Indian wheat in international markets. Industry experts believe stronger global demand and tighter supplies could further support wheat prices and improve export prospects in the coming months.
India’s edible oil import volumes increased significantly in the first six months of the 2025-26 oil year, reaching 78.15 lakh tonnes. According to the SEA, the overall import bill surged to nearly ₹87,000 crore amid elevated international prices. While crude palm oil imports declined due to weak demand and high costs, refiners shifted toward more affordable alternatives such as sunflower and soybean oil. Major suppliers included Indonesia and Malaysia for palm oil, Argentina and Brazil for soybean oil, and Russia and Ukraine for sunflower oil.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has appealed to the government for a transition period on sugar exports, requesting permission to complete already contracted shipments. The industry warns that sudden export restrictions could affect India’s reputation among international buyers and disrupt ongoing trade commitments. According to ISMA, nearly 6.5 lakh tonnes of sugar have already been exported, while an additional 40,000–60,000 tonnes remain in the shipment pipeline. The request comes amid concerns over lower production estimates, rising domestic sugar prices, and climate-related uncertainties for the 2026–27 season. Industry experts also highlighted that increasing cane costs, weak ethanol demand, and pressure on mill margins continue to challenge sugar producers despite stronger local prices.
India’s wheat procurement for the 2026–27 marketing season has crossed 30 million tonnes, reaching 30.15 MT by May 12. The country is steadily progressing toward the government’s procurement target of 34.5 MT. Punjab led the procurement with 12.16 MT, while Haryana exceeded its target with 8.46 MT. Madhya Pradesh also recorded strong recovery in procurement activities. Despite crop damage caused by unseasonal rain and hailstorms, procurement momentum remains positive, supporting India’s food security and grain supply outlook.
Black pepper prices remained stable in the domestic market due to strong pre-monsoon buying activity from masala manufacturers and grinding units. Traders across North India increased procurement to secure raw material before the monsoon season, as excess moisture during rains can impact pepper quality. In the Kochi terminal market, ungarbled pepper was quoted around ₹700 per kg, while garbled varieties traded near ₹720 per kg. Arrivals were reported between 15–20 tonnes. Tamil Nadu’s pepper production witnessed a sharp decline this season due to climate-related challenges, while Karnataka maintained a relatively normal crop output. Industry sources also highlighted that export demand remained weak because of shipping disruptions, currency fluctuations, and US import tariffs. Despite global trade pressures, domestic demand continues to support market stability.
Agriculture experts have urged India to minimize the large-scale wastage of cashew apples and focus on developing value-added products from the fruit. Speaking at a cashew apple festival in Mangaluru, experts noted that India produces nearly 60 lakh tonnes of cashew apples annually, but a major portion goes unused. They emphasized opportunities in non-alcoholic beverages, vegan food alternatives, and Ayurvedic products, highlighting the fruit’s rich vitamin C and antioxidant content. Improved packaging, processing, and market promotion can help expand the industry while creating additional income opportunities for farmers and agribusinesses.
The Union government’s wheat procurement increased significantly during the first week of May, reflecting stronger arrivals and active purchasing across major wheat-producing states. Madhya Pradesh emerged as the key contributor, accounting for a major share of the recent procurement growth. Punjab and Haryana also reported improved procurement figures, helping narrow the gap with last year’s levels. Despite weather-related challenges in some regions, the government remains optimistic about achieving its procurement target for the 2026–27 season, supported by higher procurement expectations from multiple states.
APEDA has announced an extension for the mandatory 100% physical verification of organic farmers till July 3, 2026, under the National Programme for Organic Production (NPOP). The decision comes after stakeholders reported issues related to network connectivity, record updates, and temporary migration of farmers. Currently, nearly 52% of farmers have completed the verification process. APEDA stated that unverified farmers will not be allowed to operate on the Tracenet system after the deadline. Grower groups with low verification rates have also been directed to improve compliance to avoid restrictions on transaction certificates. The extension is expected to help certification bodies and farmers complete the process efficiently while strengthening transparency and traceability in India’s organic export sector.
APEDA has launched India’s first AI-based basmati paddy survey for the 2026–28 season, covering around 4 million hectares across major basmati-growing regions. The initiative aims to collect accurate crop data through advanced technology, helping improve varietal identification, production estimates, and export planning. The survey will gather information from over 1.5 lakh ground-truth points while engaging more than 5 lakh farmers. The move is expected to strengthen India’s position in the global basmati market by supporting better policy decisions and enhancing transparency in the sector. The initiative has also sparked discussions regarding the expansion of the Basmati GI zone and the inclusion of new cultivation regions. Industry experts believe the survey could play a key role in improving productivity, quality standards, and long-term growth of India’s basmati exports.
In a major step towards strengthening India’s agricultural sector, the Union Cabinet has approved a ₹5,659 crore Cotton Productivity Mission for 2026–31. The initiative aims to increase cotton production to 498 lakh bales by improving productivity from 440 kg/ha to 755 kg/ha, benefiting around 32 lakh farmers. The mission will focus on developing high-yielding and pest-resistant seed varieties, enhancing farming practices, and promoting sustainability through better water use and traceability initiatives like Kasturi Cotton Bharat. It also supports natural fibres such as bamboo and flax, while addressing challenges like declining output, pest attacks, and shifting crop patterns. This move aligns with the government’s long-term vision to strengthen the agriculture and textile sectors, ensuring better income opportunities for farmers and sustainable growth for the industry.
India’s rice procurement for the 2025–26 season (October–April) has touched approximately 50 million tonnes, marking a 6% year-on-year growth. The government has set an ambitious target of 56.66 million tonnes for the full season, covering both kharif and rabi crops. Key states such as Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha have reported strong procurement performance, while regions like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have seen slight declines. Rabi procurement has also improved, reaching 1.21 million tonnes so far. With rising stock levels, the government is expected to adopt strategic sales measures, including supplying rice to ethanol distilleries, states, and the open market. In FY26, a record 10.8 million tonnes has already been sold from reserves, highlighting active efforts to manage surplus stocks efficiently.
India’s wheat procurement for buffer stocks has reached 23.25 million tonnes as of April 30, marking a decline compared to last year’s 25.63 million tonnes. The primary reason behind this drop is a sharp 59% fall in procurement in Madhya Pradesh. Despite this setback, Punjab and Haryana have shown strong performance, with Haryana surpassing its procurement targets and Punjab nearing completion, even while facing weather-related quality concerns. Meanwhile, states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Bihar are witnessing mixed trends, with Bihar showing positive growth. To stabilize procurement levels and achieve the target of 34.5 million tonnes by June 30, the government has increased purchase targets in key states. Additionally, Madhya Pradesh is offering bonuses above the MSP to encourage farmers to sell more wheat. These developments highlight the dynamic nature of India’s agricultural procurement and its impact on both domestic supply and global grain markets.
India’s sugar production for the 2025–26 season has grown by 7%, reaching 275.28 lakh tonnes compared to 256.49 lakh tonnes last year. Key producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka recorded strong gains, while Uttar Pradesh saw a slight dip in output. Despite the overall increase, the sugar industry is facing mounting challenges, including rising production costs, weak ex-mill prices, and increasing cane payment arrears, which have crossed ₹2,130 crore in Maharashtra alone. Industry stakeholders are urging the government to implement an early hike in the minimum selling price (MSP), accelerate ethanol blending beyond E20 levels, and revise ethanol procurement prices. These measures are seen as essential to improve mill efficiency, ensure timely payments to farmers, and maintain stability in the sector.
India has officially reiterated its position as a non-GMO rice producer, with confirmations from the Environment Ministry and ICAR stating that no genetically modified rice is approved or cultivated in the country. This clarification comes amid concerns raised by China over alleged GMO contamination in Indian rice shipments. In response, APEDA is set to take up the issue with Chinese authorities, seeking clarity on regulatory requirements and pushing for fair evaluation standards. The move is expected to strengthen India’s credibility as a reliable supplier of non-GMO rice, protect basmati exports, and minimize disruptions in bilateral trade.
The Basmati Rice Farmers and Exporters Development Forum (BFEDF) has raised serious concerns over the rising financial pressure on exporters due to high shipping and detention charges. The situation has worsened בעקבות disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and blockage near the Strait of Hormuz, leaving several consignments stranded. Exporters, particularly MSMEs, are facing significant losses, with some reports indicating that additional costs have surged up to 70% of the shipment value. Containers stuck at key ports like Jebel Ali have further increased logistical challenges, forcing exporters to arrange costly alternative transportation. The forum has accused shipping companies of adopting an unfair approach by invoking force majeure for delays while continuing to levy high fees. It has urged the government to step in and ensure fair practices, transparent regulations, and reciprocal relief measures to protect exporters and maintain the quality of perishable cargo.
The Rice Exporters Association of Chhattisgarh (TREACG) has requested Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal to step in following China’s suspension of three Indian rice exporters due to alleged GMO traces in non-basmati rice shipments. Exporters have denied the claims, citing ICAR’s confirmation that genetically modified rice is neither approved nor cultivated commercially in India. The situation has led to shipment rejections, increased demurrage costs, cargo diversions, and growing uncertainty in the export market. Industry stakeholders are calling for diplomatic engagement with Chinese authorities, recognition of India’s non-GMO certifications, and immediate relief measures for affected exporters. A timely resolution is essential to maintain India’s strong position in the global rice trade and safeguard exporters’ interests.
In a significant development in the global agricultural market, Brazil has replaced India as the leading exporter of corn to Bangladesh. This shift highlights changing trade patterns driven by rising domestic demand in India, particularly for ethanol production and animal feed, which has reduced its exportable surplus.
India has approved the export of additional wheat volumes, aiming to ease domestic stock pressure as inventories reach multi-year highs. However, this move is unlikely to significantly influence global markets. Indian wheat remains priced at a premium—around $265–270 per tonne—making it less competitive than supplies from key exporters like Russia and Europe. Higher MSP-based procurement costs, along with expensive logistics and storage challenges, continue to limit India’s export competitiveness. Freight rates and vessel availability further add to the constraints. As a result, exports are expected to remain selective, mainly targeting nearby markets such as Bangladesh or fulfilling urgent regional demand. While the decision supports domestic supply management, it does not position India as a major disruptor in the global wheat trade landscape.
India is heading into the Kharif 2026 season with its lowest urea stock in the last four years, creating uncertainty for agricultural output, especially paddy cultivation. With forecasts of below-normal monsoon rainfall, the pressure on fertilizer availability is increasing. While stocks of DAP and other complex fertilizers remain higher than last year, urea remains a key concern. The government has been actively importing urea and planning stock buildup during low-demand months to stabilize supply and prevent disruptions during the sowing season.
The proposal also allows State governments to decide on expansion of existing mills based on local factors such as cane availability and the impact on nearby units. With sugar consumption in the 2025–26 season estimated at around 280 lakh tonnes—similar to last year—the move reflects stable demand trends. Experts link this flat consumption to growing health awareness and a gradual shift toward alternatives like jaggery. The government has invited public feedback on the draft policy until May 20
Basmati rice exporters, led by the Punjab Rice Millers Exporters Association (PRMEA), have called for a major restructuring of the Basmati Export Development Foundation (BEDF). The demand comes amid concerns over increasing financial burdens, including a sharp rise in contract registration fees from ₹30 to ₹70 per tonne. Exporters argue that the current system lacks transparency and efficiency, impacting global competitiveness. They have proposed wider stakeholder consultations, formation of a high-powered committee, and policy improvements to ensure sustainable growth and stronger global positioning of India’s basmati rice industry.
Basmati rice exporters in India are calling for the removal of the ₹70 per tonne levy imposed on shipments, highlighting the mounting pressure on the industry. With challenges such as delayed international payments, increasing freight and insurance costs, and ongoing geopolitical disruptions, exporters are facing shrinking profit margins. Industry estimates suggest that the levy contributes a significant annual burden, making it harder for Indian exporters to compete in price-sensitive markets like the Middle East and Europe. Small and medium exporters are expected to be the most affected, prompting urgent appeals for policy relief to sustain export operations and maintain India’s global presence in the rice trade.
A knowledge paper by Grant Thornton Bharat, in collaboration with FICCI, presents a strategic roadmap to make India self-sufficient and globally competitive in cocoa production by 2040–41. The plan focuses on launching a National Cocoa Mission, boosting research and development, and implementing key policy, financial, and digital reforms to strengthen the sector. The roadmap will roll out in phases—beginning with infrastructure development and improved seed quality (2026–28), followed by farmer training, seed distribution, and digital traceability (2028–30). By 2030–35, India aims to expand cocoa cultivation to 1 lakh hectares and meet 50% of domestic demand, with complete self-sufficiency targeted by 2040. With increasing demand and high reliance on imports, this initiative is expected to reduce dependency, improve farmer incomes, and position India as a strong player in the global cocoa industry.
Recent claims that basmati rice from Madhya Pradesh is being exported to 47 countries have reignited the debate over Geographical Indication (GI) recognition. As the state is not officially included in India’s GI-approved basmati regions, experts warn this could impact India’s global credibility in premium rice markets. The issue remains under legal review, with ongoing discussions around inclusion, export regulations, and the long-term impact on farmers and trade.
India witnessed a 9.2% drop in edible oil imports in March, reaching 11.73 lakh tonnes compared to February. This decline is mainly attributed to reduced domestic demand, elevated global prices, and the depreciation of the rupee. Additionally, sufficient availability from the mustard crop has eased import requirements. However, during the November–March period of the 2025–26 oil year, imports increased by 8.8%, highlighting India’s continued reliance on global supply chains. Earlier higher imports were driven by global uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and increased freight costs. Moving forward, import trends are expected to remain moderate unless global prices stabilize and currency conditions improve.
Global corn markets are showing signs of a potential price decline following the Iran–US ceasefire developments. Reduced geopolitical tensions have eased concerns over supply disruptions, leading to improved trade confidence and smoother logistics. As market stability returns, buyers may witness more favorable pricing in the coming weeks, impacting global agricultural trade dynamics.
Unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms during March–April have significantly impacted wheat crops across several states in India. Reports indicate a potential 5–10% decline in overall production, while severely affected regions may see up to 30% crop quality damage, including shriveled grains and reduced shine. States like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar have reported notable losses, especially in mature crops. Despite these challenges, authorities are taking steps to support farmers and stabilize procurement, while still projecting strong overall wheat output.
After a strong export performance in FY26, India’s coffee sector is now facing headwinds as total output is estimated to decline to 4.03 lakh tonnes. Unfavorable weather conditions, including excess rainfall in major producing states like Karnataka and Kerala, have impacted crop quality and yield. While arabica production may see slight improvement, a sharp decline in robusta output is expected to tighten overall supply. Rising global competition and premium pricing for Indian coffee could further challenge export growth in the coming months.
Sugar consumption in the 2025–26 season has taken a mixed turn, with early gains now reversing in recent months. While demand exceeded allocation by 60,000 tonnes between October and February, it declined sharply by nearly 2 lakh tonnes in March and is expected to fall further in April. The slowdown is largely driven by lower temperatures and ongoing LPG cylinder shortages, which have disrupted consumption patterns. Additionally, reduced government allocations and slightly lower monthly quotas compared to last year indicate a softening market outlook, raising concerns for the sugar industry in the coming months.
India is likely to restrict sugar exports as the government focuses on increasing ethanol blending from 10% to 20% ⚡🌱 With ₹16,918 crore in cane dues pending and strong domestic demand for ethanol production, more sugar could be diverted away from exports. India has already exported 91 lakh tonnes in 2024–25 so far, and any further restrictions could impact global sugar prices and trade flows
Mega Grain is dedicated to exporting high-quality rice from trusted manufacturers to West Asia, ensuring consistency and reliability in global trade. Despite increasing shipping costs and ongoing supply chain challenges, we remain committed to maintaining strong trade relationships and timely deliveries. Our focus on quality, transparency, and resilience helps us navigate uncertainties while continuing to serve our international partners with excellence.
Soymeal consumption in India is expected to decline by around 7% in the 2026–27 marketing year, mainly due to poultry and livestock producers shifting towards more cost-effective alternatives like DDGS and de-oiled rice bran. High domestic prices are also contributing to reduced local demand. However, the export outlook remains strong, with soybean meal exports projected to rise significantly, supported by demand from key international markets such as Europe and China. This reflects a changing market dynamic where domestic consumption slows, but global opportunities continue to expand for exporters.
Tea auctions at Coonoor are witnessing a rise in sales activity, largely driven by strong internal buying and year-end business commitments. Despite this increased participation, prices across most tea categories continue to remain lower, reflecting ongoing market pressure and limited arrivals. However, select quality lots have shown slight price improvements, indicating demand for premium grades. The overall trend highlights a mixed market scenario where demand is improving, but pricing remains cautious. Traders and exporters are closely monitoring these developments as they signal shifting dynamics in the tea trade.
Unseasonal rainfall between March 11–22 has affected wheat crops in major producing states like Punjab, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh. Early reports suggest a potential production decline of 10–15% in some regions, along with quality issues due to crop damage. While the overall national impact may remain limited, localized losses and reduced grain quality could influence supply trends and market dynamics in the coming months.
Dry red chilli prices have seen a sharp increase, driven by strong domestic demand and a significant drop in production. Lower acreage and reduced output have tightened supply in the market. Despite weaker export demand from some countries, domestic buying is supporting price levels. With stocks declining, prices are expected to remain firm in the coming months.
Prices of key rabi pulses like chana and masur have softened as fresh arrivals increased across major producing regions. Chana is trading around ₹5,042 per quintal and masur near ₹6,778, both below MSP levels. While government procurement has started to support prices, weak demand and comfortable supply continue to keep the market under pressure. However, rising import costs and currency factors may prevent further sharp declines, keeping the market range-bound in the near term.
Maharashtra’s soybean procurement drive was completed on time, ensuring that no eligible farmer was denied procurement under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) system. While MSP continues to provide a safety net, many farmers opted to sell in the open market due to higher prevailing prices. This reflects improving market dynamics and better income opportunities for farmers, highlighting a positive trend in the agricultural sector.
India’s west coast is emerging as a stronger agricultural export hub with new facilities at Jaigad Port. The inauguration of a plant quarantine office and an NABL-accredited **Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) laboratory will allow exporters to complete testing and certification locally. Previously, exporters from states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana depended on Jawaharlal Nehru Port for certification and export procedures, increasing transport costs and delays. With modern infrastructure, cold storage, and improved logistics connectivity, Jaigad Port is expected to reduce shipping costs by around 10–15%, making it easier for exporters to ship perishable agricultural products while strengthening India’s agri-export ecosystem. 🌾🚢
India’s cumin production for 2026 may see a slight decline due to reduced acreage, unpredictable weather conditions, and crop diseases like blight. According to the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders, total output is estimated at around 5.13 lakh tonnes, nearly 5% lower than last year. While Gujarat may see a sharp drop in production, Rajasthan could witness some improvement due to better yields. Global trade sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical tensions continue to impact shipments to West Asia.
Growing geopolitical tensions in West Asia are beginning to impact the global coffee trade. Several shipping lines have temporarily paused cargo bookings to the region, which may slow down Indian coffee exports. West Asia and North Africa together account for a significant share of India’s coffee shipments, making the situation important for exporters and buyers alike. Despite these challenges, demand from Europe and other international markets continues to support India’s coffee export growth.
Indian buyers could face rising prices for pistachios, figs, and raisins following supply disruptions caused by the Gulf crisis. India depends heavily on Iran and the US for pistachios, and the closure of key Iranian ports has pushed prices up by ₹40–100 per kg. Imports of figs and raisins, largely sourced from Afghanistan, may also be impacted due to regional tensions and prior trade challenges. However, walnut prices are likely to remain stable for the next 1–2 months, supported by sufficient stock levels and additional supply from Kashmir.
In a significant move to enhance global food security, the Food Corporation of India has signed a five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the World Food Programme. Under this agreement, India will supply 200,000 metric tonnes of rice every year to support international humanitarian operations. The pricing will be reviewed annually, with the current rate fixed at ₹2,800 per quintal until March 31, 2026. This partnership highlights India’s growing role in supporting global food assistance programs and reinforces its commitment to ensuring food reaches communities in need worldwide. 🌾🌍
The Food Corporation of India (FCI) has entered into a significant agreement with the World Food Programme (WFP) to supply 2 lakh tonnes of rice for global hunger relief operations. Priced at ₹2,800 per quintal until March 2026, the agreement—valid until 2031 with annual price revisions—aims to support vulnerable populations across multiple countries. This partnership highlights India’s growing role in global food security and reinforces its commitment to humanitarian assistance. By ensuring a steady supply of rice through FCI, India continues to contribute actively to international relief efforts and sustainable food distribution systems.
The government has approved additional shipments of 500,000 tonnes each of wheat products and sugar, adding to earlier clearances, according to a statement by the food ministry. India has also permitted the export of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat, easing restrictions that had been in place for over three years, as strong harvests have boosted domestic supply and supported farmers. Earlier, in 2022, the country — the world’s second-largest wheat producer — had imposed a ban on wheat exports after a severe heat wave led to reduced yields and a sharp rise in local prices.
India recorded a 2% decline in edible oil imports during Q1 of the 2025–26 oil year (November–January). Total imports stood at 38.78 lakh tonnes compared to 39.21 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. The dip was largely driven by reduced soybean oil and sunflower oil imports. On a monthly basis, imports also softened in January, reflecting changing demand dynamics and global supply trends.
The Tea Board has made testing mandatory for all tea imports from May 1 after complaints about rising inflows of cheap, low-quality teas. Importers must follow strict SOPs, obtain licences, submit shipment details online, and pay ₹11,120 plus GST per sample for provisional clearance. Officials will draw samples at ports for quality checks. The move aims to curb substandard imports—mainly from Nepal and African nations—that depress domestic prices and compete with Indian teas, including Darjeeling.
Amid declining global cotton prices, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has announced a price reduction of ₹1,400–₹1,700 per candy for the 2025–26 crop to accelerate sales. The lifting period has also been reduced from 60 days to 30 days to improve market movement. Since sales began on January 19, around 4 lakh bales have been sold, while total procurement has reached approximately 93 lakh bales across Telangana, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. Meanwhile, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has increased its crop estimate to 317 lakh bales and projected a season-end surplus of 122.6 lakh bales, supported by higher production, imports, and ample supply.
The Indian spice industry has welcomed the recent US tariff reduction, which places India on par with major exporting nations such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Cambodia. The move is expected to reduce non-trade barriers, simplify documentation, and accelerate FDA clearance processes. With contracts typically finalized during the February–April harvest season, the decision is likely to boost importer confidence, stabilize pricing, and support long-term growth in India–US spice trade.
The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has urged the Centre to block imports of genetically modified (GM) soybean meal, citing sufficient domestic supply and warning that imports would hurt millions of farmers. It said rising soymeal prices are market-driven and linked to higher soybean and oil prices, with raw materials accounting for most production costs. For 2025–26, SOPA expects comfortable supplies with adequate stocks to meet demand and exports, stressing there is no physical shortage. The association cautioned that allowing imports could create foreign dependency, increase forex outflows, widen the trade deficit, and discourage local soybean cultivation.
In a major step toward rural development, the government is focusing on agricultural growth through the expansion and modernization of cooperative societies. By encouraging farmers to work collectively, these co-ops can improve access to credit, storage, technology, and better market linkages. The move is expected to enhance productivity, reduce middlemen dependency, and ensure fair pricing for farmers. Such cooperative-driven growth not only supports small and marginal farmers but also strengthens the overall agricultural supply chain, creating long-term sustainability in the agri sector.
Cashew aaj ke time par ek high-value crop ban chuka hai jo global market me strong demand enjoy kar raha hai. Snacks, confectionery, dairy alternatives aur health foods me wide usage ki wajah se iska consumption lagataar badh raha hai. Stable export potential, premium pricing aur processing value addition isse traders aur buyers dono ke liye ek profitable segment bana dete hain. Agri commodities ki duniya me cashew clearly ek turning point represent karta hai — jahan quality, sourcing aur consistency sabse zyada matter karte hain.
Orthodox leaf prices strengthened at the Kochi tea auctions as lower arrivals created tighter supply conditions. Average prices rose by around ₹5 per kg, with nearly 90% of the offered quantity sold. Whole leaf teas ruled firm to dearer, while broker participation remained steady. CIS buyers provided strong support, alongside moderate interest from the Middle East. In the CTC dust segment, good liquoring teas held steady to firm, although prices above ₹200 per kg faced resistance. Of the 5.66 lakh kg offered, blenders absorbed nearly 75%. Meanwhile, Orthodox dust grades saw limited buying and remained mostly steady to lower. Trade sources attribute the firm market trend to tightening supplies, winter production losses in high-altitude regions like Munnar, healthy domestic demand, and reduced Kenyan output. As a result, ₹200 per kg is now emerging as the new price benchmark for Cochin dust teas.
India’s pulses imports are projected to decline by approximately 30% in FY26, falling to nearly 5 million tonnes. This sharp drop is mainly driven by improved domestic crop output, better stock availability, and supportive government policies encouraging local production. The reduction in import volumes could influence global trade flows and pricing, making it an important development for traders, exporters, and buyers in the agri-commodity market.
Indian cardamom prices have witnessed a notable surge in 2025, supported by steady production levels and a strong rise in export demand. Improved quality output and consistent supply from key growing regions have strengthened buyer confidence. At the same time, increased international demand from major importing countries has added upward pressure on prices. Market experts indicate that favorable trade conditions and growing global consumption are likely to keep cardamom prices firm in the coming months, creating positive opportunities for exporters and traders.
India’s tea sector is showing a positive outlook for 2025, with both production and exports projected to exceed the levels recorded in 2024. Favorable weather conditions, improved cultivation practices, and steady international demand are key factors supporting this growth. As one of the world’s largest tea producers and exporters, India continues to strengthen its position in global markets, supplying a wide range of teas to buyers across Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. This anticipated increase in output is expected to ensure better availability, stable supply chains, and competitive pricing for international importers and distributors. At Mega Grain, we closely monitor market trends to help our clients make informed sourcing decisions and access high-quality tea products from trusted origins.
Global coffee prices weakened toward the end of the week, driven by increased supply and slowing demand. The market has moved past the peak import period for year-end holidays and Christmas production, resulting in slower delivery activity. At the same time, fresh coffee arrivals from Vietnam have added downward pressure on prices across key producing regions. In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices showed mixed levels across provinces, while futures markets reflected a clear bearish trend. Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange declined for both January and March 2026 contracts, while Arabica prices on the New York exchange also fell, indicating broader market weakness. The combination of strong supply availability and softer demand continues to influence short-term price movements in the global coffee market.
Tur (arhar) prices continue to remain weak as cheaper imports and subdued domestic demand weigh heavily on the market. With the arrival of the new crop in major producing states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka, prices are currently ruling between ₹6,700 and ₹7,700 per quintal—significantly lower than the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of ₹8,000 per quintal. To stabilise the market and support farmers affected by the price drop, the Agriculture Ministry has approved the procurement of 9.67 lakh tonnes of tur under the Price Support Scheme (PSS) for the 2025–26 season. This procurement will be conducted in Karnataka over a 90-day period from the start of the purchase operations. The government’s decision follows a proposal from the Karnataka Government seeking intervention due to falling prices. The increased import volumes have added pressure on domestic markets, while demand for tur has remained relatively weak across wholesale and retail channels.
The World Spice Organisation (WSO) has urged the Union Government to include spices in the new export scheme to offset losses from high US tariffs. The US accounts for 16% of India’s spice exports, and many exporters are hit. WSO Chair Ramkumar Menon said India must tap opportunities in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Eastern Europe, where the seasoning market is worth $14.2 billion but India’s share is only $0.6 billion. He added that domestic demand is strong enough to absorb inventory build-up and that value-added spice products remain unaffected and offer major growth potential.
Tea production in Assam, India’s top tea-producing State, is expected to be slightly higher this year than in 2024, when it produced 627.95 million kg, about 52% of India’s total output. According to the North Eastern Tea Association, production trends have reversed this year, with a strong first half and a weaker second half. Tea Board India data shows January–August production rose 7% year-on-year to 402.57 million kg. While October output will be lower than last year’s record crop, overall production for 2025 is projected to marginally exceed 2024 levels. However, it remains below the 2023 figure of 688.33 million kg.
India exported about 7.75 lakh tonnes of sugar in the 2024-25 marketing season (February–September), according to AISTA. Of this, 6.13 lakh tonnes were white sugar, 1.04 lakh tonnes refined, and 33,338 tonnes raw sugar. Major buyers included Djibouti, Somalia, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan. AISTA has urged the government to announce the 2025-26 export quota by November and maintain the same quota policy as last year.
India has made prior registration with the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) mandatory for non-basmati rice exports, a move aimed at giving the government greater control over shipments. According to stakeholders, the step will not immediately affect trade apart from adding a minimal cost. APEDA, which promotes exports of agri-products such as rice, fruits, vegetables, meat, and dairy, will now handle contract registrations for non-basmati rice exports in line with the existing process for basmati rice. Exporters will be required to pay a nominal fee of ₹8 per metric tonne, with certificates issued online. Industry sources said the measure has been introduced to strengthen monitoring of export volumes and develop a rice trade promotion fund. Suraj Agarwal, CEO of Ricevilla Group, noted that while this is only an additional procedure, it signals the government’s intent to keep closer watch on non-basmati shipments, which account for a large share of India’s overall rice exports. As the world’s largest rice exporter, India is expected to benefit from a more calibrated approach to managing both basmati and non-basmati rice trade.
At the India International Tea Convention 2025, experts urged joint efforts between government and industry to make the tea value chain more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable. Special Secretary L Satya Srinivas highlighted the need to address issues of cultivation, climate, costs, and consumption through innovation and technology. He stressed positioning tea as a sustainable, health-oriented, and aspirational beverage to boost demand. UPASI President Mathew Abraham noted India’s low per capita tea consumption (840 g) compared to other nations, calling for stronger domestic production, export development, and tapping new markets like China, Saudi Arabia, and Africa, while regaining ground in traditional ones.
After last year’s record purchases, India’s pulses imports have slowed on weak demand and falling prices. April–August imports fell 52% to $841 million from $1.76 billion a year ago, with August down 64% year-on-year. Except tur, imports of urad, yellow peas, chana, and masoor all declined sharply. Tur rose 6% to 2.92 lt. Higher domestic output and lower global prices have reduced import needs. Kharif pulses acreage is slightly higher at 118 lh, though excess rains may affect moong and urad.
India’s cotton production in 2025-26 is expected to rise to 325–340 lakh bales (vs. 312 lakh bales last year), despite reduced acreage in Gujarat and Maharashtra and rain damage in some States. Good rainfall, fewer pest attacks, and better yields are driving optimism. Acreage fell in Gujarat (20.82 lh vs. 23.66 lh) and Maharashtra (38.44 lh vs. 40.81 lh), but rose in Telangana (18.51 lh) and Karnataka (8.08 lh). South India’s crop may reach 105 lakh bales (vs. 88 lakh bales). Heavy rains in Maharashtra, Telangana, Punjab, and Haryana, plus pest issues in Andhra Pradesh, caused some losses, though traders expect only 5–6% damage overall. Prices, however, are likely to remain bearish amid record imports and weak demand.
Punjab’s rice output may dip as floods damaged paddy across 2 lakh hectares, though yields in unaffected areas could improve. Last year, the State produced 14.36 mt of rice, including basmati. Non-basmati crops near rivers bore the brunt of the floods, prompting Punjab to seek Central aid to prepare fields for rabi crops. Punjab remains key to the Centre’s 46.35 mt procurement target, contributing 11.61 mt last year. Despite calls for crop diversification, farmers prefer rice as assured MSP procurement makes it more profitable than alternatives.
The 2025 kharif outlook for nutricereals (Shree Anna) is broadly positive, led by maize, which has gained from strong demand in ethanol and livestock feed. Nationally, coarse cereal acreage rose by 12.09 lh to 91.71 lh, with maize alone expanding 10.32 lh to 94.62 lh. States like Karnataka and Telangana saw maize acreage surge, while jowar and ragi posted modest gains and bajra acreage slipped. Maharashtra showed sharp maize expansion but continued declines in jowar and bajra, while Gujarat’s bajra crop was hit by floods. India’s maize output is pegged at a record 43 mt in 2025-26, up 2% on higher acreage, though yields are slightly lower. Prices remain firm at ₹2,420–2,590 a quintal, supported by feed and ethanol demand, with strong prospects ahead.
Gujarat, producing over half of India’s groundnuts, is projected to hit a record 66 lakh tonnes this year — 26% higher than last year’s 52.2 lakh tonnes. Groundnut sowing rose 15% to 22 lakh hectares, largely in Saurashtra, though floods in North Gujarat and Kutch may impact yields. Last year, the State procured 12.22 lakh tonnes worth ₹8,295 crore at MSP, and similar purchases are planned this season, with farmer registration extended till September 22
India's kharif rice production is expected to fall to around 120-121 million tonnes this year, slightly down from 121.85 million tonnes last year due to heavy rains and floods impacting yields in some states. A urea shortage, especially in August, may also cause a minor dip in production. While overall crop conditions remain favorable, Punjab is expected to see at least a 20% reduction in output. Kharif paddy acreage has risen by about 5% compared to last year, with Uttar Pradesh, the largest rice producer, seeing a significant 13.5% increase in area. However, the floods in Punjab and other states like Telangana, Karnataka, and Maharashtra may further affect production, particularly basmati rice. The overall production is still expected to reach 135 million tonnes, with good conditions in the southern states potentially offsetting the losses. West Bengal aims for a record production of 4.64 million tonnes, while Karnataka and Telangana face challenges due to heavy rains and fertilizer shortages.
China has suspended soybean purchases from the US, opting for costlier imports from Brazil due to a 20% extra tariff on American shipments. Despite usually buying US soybeans from September to January, China has not booked forward sales for September-October. Analysts say this pressure explains President Trump’s softer trade stance with Beijing. In 2023-24, China—importing 61% of global soybeans—bought 25 mt from the US, but exports fell to $13.2 billion. USDA projects a 117 mt US crop in 2025-26, yet exports may drop 48% if China delays purchases. Farmers warn both US growers and Chinese consumers are losing as costs rise, with Brazil expected to produce 176 mt while China’s imports may hit a record 112 mt.
India’s oilmeal exports fell 2.4% to 15.16 lt in April–July 2025-26 (15.54 lt last year) due to lower shipments of soyabean, rapeseed, and castorseed meal. July exports declined 7% y-o-y to 4.22 lt. Soyabean meal exports dropped to 6.76 lt (6.92 lt), rapeseed to 7.40 lt (7.58 lt), and castorseed meal to 85,032 tonnes (1 lt). Despite this, rapeseed meal demand surged, driven by China’s sharp rise in imports to 2.77 lt (12,011 tonnes last year), aided by India’s price edge at $195/tonne vs Hamburg’s $236. SEA urged lifting the ban on de-oiled rice bran exports (in place since July 2023, now extended till Sept 30, 2025), citing falling prices. Major buyers were South Korea (1.87 lt vs 3.22 lt) and China (2.83 lt vs 16,416 tonnes), with rapeseed meal dominating shipments.
Coconut oil prices have nearly tripled in Asia within two years, driven by supply shortages, erratic weather, and rising demand, especially from India. Consumers are switching to cheaper alternatives like sunflower oil, reserving coconut oil for select dishes. Global output remains stagnant at around 3.67 million tons as aging trees, underinvestment, and climate extremes hit yields. Producers expect prices to stay above $2,000 a ton, far higher than past averages, while strong global demand for coconut water, copra, milk, and skincare products continues to strain supplies. The surge has widened the premium over palm kernel oil and could push up prices of alternative edible oils as well.
Stronger demand from blenders, upcountry buyers, and exporters lifted tea prices at Coonoor auctions, with high-priced and better liquoring CTC leaf dearer by ₹3–₹4. Rains in the Nilgiris are hampering plucking and processing, but intermittent showers may boost the next season’s crop. Of 17.41 lakh kg leaf teas offered, 77% sold; dust grades saw 80% sales out of 4.89 lakh kg. In orthodox leaf, better medium sorts were steady to ₹2 dearer, while whole leaf fell ₹5–₹6. Brokens were firm to ₹3 dearer; secondaries/fannings fell ₹2–₹3. In CTC dust, high-priced teas were steady to ₹3 dearer, medium sorts eased ₹1–₹2. Orthodox dust fell ₹4–₹5; secondaries and finer dust held steady.
Cotton acreage in Gujarat, India’s top producing state, has dropped 13% to 20.35 lakh hectares as many farmers shift to more profitable crops like groundnut and soybean. The switch is driven by higher MSP for oilseeds, the ability to grow a second crop post-harvest, and labour issues during cotton harvest. However, this decline is balanced by increased sowing in Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and northern states. As of August 1, India’s total cotton acreage stood at 105.87 lh, slightly below last year. Telangana saw a rise to 43.28 lakh acres, while Karnataka's area rose 17% to 7.5 lh due to timely rains.
After hitting record highs in July, coconut oil and copra prices have started to decline, dropping by ₹6 and ₹10 per kg, respectively. Wholesale prices in Kochi now stand at ₹379 for coconut oil and ₹240 for copra, down from ₹393 and ₹261. The fall is due to increased copra arrivals from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Retail coconut oil prices remain high at ₹450–500 per kg, but a further dip is expected as traders offload stocks. Despite recent cuts in import duty on other edible oils, coconut oil prices remained mostly unaffected. However, high retail prices have pushed consumers toward cheaper options like palmolein, sunflower, and blended oils. This shift may persist even with the recent price correction, which could benefit the industry long-term. Ahead of Onam, the Kerala government will distribute coconut oil at a subsidised ₹349/litre through Supplyco outlets, in partnership with Kerafed.
A farmers and traders association has urged the Centre to curb cheap pulse imports to stabilise prices and encourage higher sowing. Sunil Kumar Baldeva, President of the Agri Farmer and Trade Association, said imports from Russia and Canada have created an oversupply, particularly of yellow peas priced below $400/tonne, which is hurting local markets. The Centre’s move to extend duty-free imports of tur, yellow peas, and urad until March 2026 has triggered a steep price drop. India imported a record 6.63 mt of pulses in FY25, with yellow peas—previously not imported—making up 2.9 mt (45%). The duty-free policy has led to a crash in domestic prices: chana fell from ₹8,000 to ₹6,200/quintal, tur from ₹11,000 to ₹6,700, and yellow peas from ₹4,100 to ₹3,250. As a result, tur acreage dropped 8% to 34.9 lakh hectares by July-end despite a normal monsoon.
India’s tea exports grew 17% in value to $218.95 million in Q1 FY25, driven by strong demand from traditional markets. June alone saw a 32% rise to $83.24 million. In rupee terms, Q1 exports rose 20% to ₹1,873.72 crore. Despite geopolitical tensions, exports to Iran and CIS nations remained steady. UPASI’s Cherian M George attributed the rise to global supply-demand shifts and strong domestic production, which helped balance local prices. Santosh Kumar of Harrisons Malayalam noted good demand for quality orthodox teas from Europe and the Middle East. In 2024-25, tea exports rose 2.82% in volume to 257.80 million kg and 16% in value to ₹7,502.27 crore. North India led the growth, while South India saw a volume dip but a rise in value. Orthodox tea producer N Lakshmanan Chettiar highlighted the need for quality improvement and automation due to labour challenges.
India’s oilmeal exports dipped marginally by 0.72% to 10.94 lakh tonnes in Q1FY26, despite a decline in soyabean meal shipments. Rapeseed meal exports, however, rose to 5.31 lt (5.23 lt last year), with China emerging as a major buyer, importing 1.80 lt versus just 7,000 tonnes last year. SEA attributed this spike to competitive Indian pricing — $201/tonne in May and $198 in mid-July, well below Hamburg’s rates — and strong demand for mustard oil, boosting crushing activity. Other key importers included South Korea (1.45 lt), Bangladesh (1.26 lt), Germany, and France. Kharif oilseed sowing stood at 137.27 lh as of July 11, slightly below last year’s 139.82 lh, despite timely rains.
Malaysia’s palm oil production is projected to grow by a modest 0.5% to 19.5 million tonnes in 2025–26, after a 1.6% decline in 2024–25, driven by favourable weather in key states like Sarawak, Sabah, and Johor, according to BMI. The Malaysian Met Department forecasts normal to slightly below-normal rainfall till September 2025, with above-normal rains expected during the North-East monsoon. However, the sector continues to face acute labour shortages, with foreign workers making up 80% of the workforce. Replanting has also lagged, with only 2% of the area covered in 2024 against a 4–5% target. Despite the negligible production rise, India—sourcing 40% of its palm oil from Malaysia—is more impacted by price than by output volume. Malaysia has responded with a policy revamp, raising windfall levies and revising crude palm oil export duties.
Heavy rains in North India have dampened pepper demand, keeping prices steady at ₹666 for ungarbled and ₹686 for MG1 at Kochi. According to IPSTA's Kishore Shamji, domestic prices are under pressure due to slow upcountry demand and cheaper imported pepper from Sri Lanka and others, available at ₹625–650. Imports hit 7,000 tonnes in May–June, including 1,100 tonnes from Sri Lanka. Global market sentiment was also hit by US tariffs, reducing Vietnam's exports by 1.37%. India, a major importer from Vietnam for value-added products, may benefit as Sri Lanka's crop is delayed. Indian harvest prospects are good due to favourable weather in the South, prompting calls to boost acreage.
U.S. coffee importers are rushing to bring in Brazilian coffee before a new 50% tariff takes effect on August 1, imposed by the Trump administration. Traders are rerouting shipments mid-journey and diverting stocks from Canada and Mexico to avoid the tariff. Brazil supplies a third of U.S. coffee, and prices are already rising. Importers warn the tariff will significantly increase costs, with some already adjusting wholesale prices. Coffee chains like Starbucks, Dunkin', and Tim Hortons rely heavily on Brazilian beans. If the tariff stays, global trade flows may shift, with Brazilian coffee heading to Europe and Asia instead. The National Coffee Association has requested an exemption, calling coffee vital to American life and the economy.
Good liquoring CTC dust teas saw a price boost at Kochi auctions (Sale 28) due to strong blender demand, with 64% of the 6.65 lakh kg offered sold. Average prices rose by ₹2 to ₹145/kg. Some export interest was noted. Orthodox dust remained weak, while orthodox leaf grades, especially whole leaf and brokens, were firm to dearer with 81% of 2.15 lakh kg sold. CTC leaf prices declined amid weak export demand and high withdrawals.
Edible oil imports declined by 8.78% to 92.08 lakh tonnes during November–June of the 2024–25 oil year, mainly due to lower palm and sunflower oil shipments. Palm oil imports fell to 42.85 lt from 57.63 lt, and sunflower oil to 18.92 lt from 24.63 lt. Soyabean oil imports rose to 30.3 lt from 18.68 lt. June saw a rise in palm and sunflower oil imports compared to May. SEA noted 3.5–4 lt of refined oil also came from Nepal. SEA urged the government to release 14 lt each of soyabean and rapeseed stocks held by agencies to control prices before the festive season. Good monsoon and early sowing boosted kharif oilseed acreage by 12.3%, led by groundnut and soyabean. Indonesia and Malaysia were key palm oil suppliers; Argentina and Brazil led in soyabean oil; Russia and Ukraine in sunflower oil.
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) sees strong demand for its stocks amid improved mill buying and low private trade inventories. CCI has sold 67.09 lakh bales so far in the 2024–25 season after procuring over 1 crore bales at MSP. With CCI being the main stockholder, traders and mills are actively buying as fresh arrivals are expected only by October. Prices have risen to ₹57,000 per candy from ₹55,000 levels. Analysts say the market has turned bullish due to CCI's earlier price cuts, though yarn demand remains subdued. CCI has sold over 65% of its stock, and season-end cotton stocks are projected at 55.59 lakh bales — 84% higher than last year, due to a crop revision to 311.40 lakh bales.
The prices of good liquoring teas in CTC dust saw an uptick at the Kochi auctions, driven by strong demand from blenders. In Sale 28, these teas were firm to dearer by ₹1 to ₹2, with blenders accounting for 64 per cent of the 6,64,975 kg sold. According to auctioneers Forbes, Ewart & Figgis, the average price realisation for CTC dust rose by ₹2 to ₹145, compared to ₹143 in the previous week. There was also some export interest from Kerala Loose Tea traders and upcountry buyers. On the other hand, the orthodox dust market remained barely steady and showed signs of easing, with 9,000 kg on offer and a sales percentage of 80 per cent.
India’s agriculture system faces low productivity and farmer incomes, affecting around 100 million small and marginal farmers (SMFs) and leaving them highly vulnerable. To shift from subsistence to market-oriented farming, SMFs—who lacked surplus, skills, and market knowledge—were consolidated into Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs). Introduced in the early 2000s, FPOs aimed to boost incomes through collective bargaining and better market access. The 10,000 FPO policy accelerated this effort, with over 33,000 FPOs now registered. However, 66% are under 4 years old, generating only ₹700–800 annually per member—insufficient for strong engagement. Many FPOs stagnate after 5 years, with revenue per member flatlining and member participation dropping to 20–30% once they reach ₹25–45 lakh in annual revenue.
India’s tea production rose by nearly 40% in May 2025 to 130.6 million kg (mkg), driven by favourable weather. North India saw a 32% rise to 104.37 mkg, while South India’s output jumped 88% to 26.23 mkg. Assam’s production increased 24% to 62.59 mkg, and West Bengal’s was up 47% at 38.27 mkg. Tamil Nadu led the South with a 90% rise to 18.77 mkg; Kerala’s output nearly doubled, though Karnataka saw a slight dip. Cumulative output for Jan–May stood at 336.22 mkg, up 26% year-on-year. CTC teas dominated at 112.29 mkg, followed by orthodox (16.76 mkg) and green teas (1.55 mkg).
West Bengal is targeting record paddy production in 2025-26, aiming to surpass last year’s all-time high of 256 lakh tonnes. The sowing target is set at 42 lakh hectares, up from 41.5 lh last year. “Around 3 lh has already been sown. With early rains and timely support, we’re confident of achieving 100% of the target by July-end,” said Pradip Mazumdar, Minister of Panchayat and Rural Development. Paddy sowing in Bengal, India’s top rice producer, runs from late June to mid-September (kharif) and resumes in winter (rabi), with 76 lt produced during the last rabi season. The State credits its success to the efforts of small and marginal farmers, backed by government support. Nationally, early monsoons have boosted kharif sowing. As of July 4, total sown area rose 11.1% YoY, with foodgrains up 18.3%, pulses 35.2%, and cereals 14.2%, according to CareEdge Ratings.
Kerala gears up to ensure ample coconut oil supply for Onam by boosting copra procurement despite rising prices and shortages, Agriculture Minister P. Prasad said. Through Kerafed, the state is sourcing coconuts from key districts at ₹1 above the Coconut Development Board’s price. Tenders for 500 tonnes from the open market will also be floated. A 40% drop in South India's coconut production and quality issues due to rains in Tamil Nadu have added pressure. With retail coconut oil prices touching ₹450/litre, demand has dipped. However, prices may fall as fresh stocks arrive from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
Soyabean oil prices have surged over 30% in 2025, outperforming gold, silver, and copper—driven largely by the US EPA’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for 2026–27. Only cobalt has risen more (37%) due to Congo’s export ban. In contrast, soyameal prices have dropped nearly 14% since January. Research agency BMI noted diverging trends in the soy complex: soy oil futures rose 11.8% month-on-month in June, while meal prices fell 8.1%. EPA’s proposed changes—like tighter rules on imported feedstocks—are expected to boost domestic soy oil use in biofuels by 250 million gallons/year. The USDA expects higher demand for US-grown oil, with current CBOT soy oil futures at 54.55 cents/lb and Mumbai import prices at $1,180/tonne, up from $1,054 last year. Experts say the price rally is largely due to RFS policy changes, not exports. This is positive for US soybeans, with futures likely to rise amid lower acreage forecasts for 2025–26. While soy oil could touch 60 cents/lb, bearish trends in soymeal persist due to China’s goal to reduce soy content in animal feed and ongoing US-China trade tensions.
Pulses acreage lags in Karnataka as farmers shift to maize and cotton amid surplus rainfall. By July 5, 50.57 lakh hectares (lh) had been sown — 61% of the kharif 2025 target. Maize gained sharply, rising 14.6% y-o-y to 13.98 lh, 68% above normal. In contrast, pulses acreage fell 13% y-o-y; tur area dropped 21% to 9.88 lh, though still above the normal 6.71 lh. Urad area remained flat, and moong rose slightly. Lower pulse prices are pushing farmers towards more profitable crops. Oilseeds too are trailing, with groundnut and soybean down. However, cotton and sugarcane have gained, along with a marginal rise in tobacco.
India can more than double its maize output to 86 million tonnes by 2047 from the current 42.3 million tonnes, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said at FICCI's 11th maize summit. He stressed the need for high-yield, non-GM seed varieties with higher starch content (targeting 72% vs. current 65–70%) to boost productivity beyond the current 3.7 tonnes/hectare. While ICAR has developed 265 varieties, including 77 hybrids, more innovation is needed. He urged states like Punjab and Haryana to shift from paddy to maize. Rising maize prices, driven by the ethanol blending goal, benefit farmers, though poultry players raised feed cost concerns. Chouhan also called for stricter action against substandard agri inputs.
Soyabean oil prices have surged over 30% in 2025, outperforming gold and other commodities, driven by the US EPA’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets and policy changes favoring domestic biofuel feedstocks. Only cobalt has gained more due to Congo’s export ban. In contrast, soyabean meal prices have fallen nearly 14% since January. Research agency BMI noted contrasting trends in the soyabean complex: oil futures rose 11.8% m-o-m in June, while meal prices dropped 8.1%. The EPA’s new targets raise biomass-based diesel use, boosting soyabean oil demand by 250 million gallons/year. A recent US Senate bill further restricts clean fuel credits to North American feedstock. Soyabean meal and oil prices stood at $390/tonne and $1,180/tonne (C&F Mumbai) respectively last week. Analysts see soyabean oil benefiting from higher crude prices and bullish biofuel policies. Meanwhile, abundant supply forecasts may cap gains, though a lower 2025-26 acreage could support higher soyabean prices. Soyabean meal remains under pressure due to weak Chinese demand, policy targets to cut soyameal content in feed, and ongoing trade tensions.
Global palm oil prices are expected to remain stable in 2025, supported by strong demand from India and China and biofuel policies in the US and Indonesia, despite a projected rise in global output. Fitch’s BMI has kept its 2025 average CPO price forecast at MYR 4,150/tonne, expecting prices to range between MYR 3,800–4,000. Global production is set to rise 2.4% y-o-y to 80.6 mt, with Indonesia and Malaysia contributing 47.5 mt and 19.5 mt, respectively. While Malaysia saw a 5.9% drop in Q1 output, production rebounded in April–May, easing global supply tightness. Rising inventories and subdued export demand—especially from Indonesia—are likely to cap price increases. Global palm oil consumption is forecast to grow 1% to 78.3 mt, while the production surplus may widen to 2.3 mt. In India, consumption is expected to rise 1.6% y-o-y, with beginning stocks for 2025–26 falling 26.7% to 1.9 mt.
The Iran-Israel ceasefire boosted tea prices at Kochi auctions, especially for orthodox varieties, driven by strong overseas demand. In Sale 27, whole leaf teas were dearer by ₹5–10/kg, with a 95% sale of the 2.7 lakh kg offered. Exporters to West Asia and CIS remained active. Average price rose ₹3 to ₹183. In CTC leaf, limited good brokens fetched better prices, selling 63% of 39,000 kg, while medium and plainer types were weak. The CTC dust market declined due to poor local demand, with only 84% of 5.96 lakh kg sold and average price down ₹2 to ₹143. Orthodox dust also saw lower prices, with exporters and upcountry buyers active.
India's palm oil imports jumped 61% in June to an 11-month high of 953,000 tonnes, driven by low domestic stocks and a $100/ton price advantage over soy and sunflower oils. This helped lift total edible oil imports by 30% to 1.53 million tonnes, the highest since November. Dealers expect robust palm oil imports to continue amid attractive pricing and rising production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Meanwhile, soyoil imports fell 9% to 363,000 tonnes, sunflower oil rose 18% to 216,000 tonnes, and Nepal’s edible oil shipments halved to 75,000 tonnes.
India procured 531.13 lakh tonnes (lt) of rice for buffer stocks in the nine months till June 2025, slightly higher than 525.48 lt last year. This includes over 68 lt from the rabi crop. With annual rice needs at around 410 lt and a buffer norm of 135 lt, the government now holds surplus stock, including over 321 lt in carryover and unmilled paddy. To manage this, subsidised rice is being diverted to ethanol distilleries at ₹22.50/kg. India harvested a record 149.07 million tonnes (mt) of rice in 2024–25, with 121.85 mt from the kharif season. Kharif procurement is now complete, and rabi purchases began April 1 with a 71.7 lt target. Key contributors to the increase include West Bengal (19.91 lt), Odisha (51.30 lt), Andhra Pradesh (24.63 lt), Tamil Nadu (24.37 lt), and Telangana (71.25 lt). However, procurement declined in Punjab (116.13 lt) and Chhattisgarh (70 lt).
Farmgate prices of robusta coffee, India’s main variety, have dropped by about one-third in three months, mirroring global trends. Robusta cherry fell from ₹12,200–13,200 to ₹9,400–10,300 per 50-kg bag, and robusta parchment from ₹22,200–22,900 to ₹16,700–17,000. Arabica prices also declined, but less sharply. Arabica parchment eased to ₹25,200–26,000 from ₹26,500–27,000, and arabica cherry to ₹13,500–14,200 from ₹15,200–17,000. According to KGF’s H T Mohan Kumar, domestic prices have dropped from over ₹13,000 to around ₹9,000 per bag due to global cues.
Indian onions are losing out in global markets to cheaper supplies from Pakistan and China, as buyers have adapted to alternatives due to past Indian export curbs. Pakistan is offering onions at $170/tonne CNF to Sri Lanka, compared to India’s $330. Traders say Pakistan’s crop is larger and benefits from currency fluctuations. Chinese onions, priced at $250/tonne, are also gaining traction. Exporters note that demand for Indian onions has dropped, including for the once-dominant Rose variety, now facing competition from Myanmar. Though India removed the 20% export duty in April 2025, exports remain sluggish. Domestic arrivals are strong, with prices stable at ₹14–23/kg, pressured further by a bumper 2024-25 crop estimated at 30.77 million tonnes versus 24.27 mt last year.
During 2023-24, Punjab produced 71,490 tonnes of litchi, contributing 12.39% to India’s total litchi production. For the first time, India exported 1.5 tonnes of litchi from Punjab to Doha and Dubai this month, according to the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), an arm of the Commerce Ministry. As part of efforts to boost horticultural exports, APEDA facilitated the dispatch of the first consignment of rose-scented litchi—1 tonne from Pathankot to Doha on June 23, and 0.5 tonne to Dubai. This initiative was carried out in collaboration with Punjab’s Department of Horticulture and the Lulu Group.
The area under monsoon-sown rice has jumped 58 per cent from a year ago to 1.32 million hectares (3.3 million acres) as of Friday, according to the Agriculture Ministry. Pulses have been planted on 944,000 hectares, marking a 42 per cent increase over the same period last year. Cotton acreage has also risen to 3.1 million hectares, up 7.4 per cent year-on-year. The India Meteorological Department reported that rainfall during the ongoing monsoon season, which spans from June to September, has been 2 per cent above normal so far. Sowing typically begins in late May, with harvesting starting around late September.
The government has banned the import of watermelon seeds to support local seed producers after a surge in imports last year. India imported 83,812 tonnes in 2023-24—double the three-year average. Domestic production, at 40,000 tonnes, falls short of the annual demand of 60,000–65,000 tonnes, leading to reliance on cheaper imported seeds. Laghu Udyog Bharati pushed for the ban, citing threats to self-reliance and farmer livelihoods. Farmers argue imports have hurt traditional seed growers and employment, especially in rain-fed areas. Imported seeds are 15–20% cheaper but criticized for degrading soil quality due to high chemical input. The ban is expected to raise local seed prices and boost domestic production and rural employment. Watermelon is mainly grown in states like UP, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra, while China remains the world’s top producer.
Pulses imports fell 37% to $492 million in April-May FY25 from $782 million a year ago, as purchases of yellow peas and chickpeas slowed, according to Commerce Ministry data. Weak demand and last year’s high imports contributed to the decline, said Rahul Chauhan of I Grain India. He also cited a favourable monsoon and improved domestic production prospects. Pulses sowing rose 42% till June 20, led by moong (4.43 lh vs 2.67 lh), urad (1.39 lh vs 0.62 lh), and other pulses. However, tur acreage was slightly down at 2.48 lh (2.61 lh). Yellow peas imports fell sharply to 1.31 lt (6.86 lt), and chickpeas to 15,536 tonnes (29,948 tonnes). However, imports rose for urad (1.5 lt vs 1.39 lt), lentils (1.37 lt vs 1.13 lt), and tur (1.95 lt vs 1.22 lt). The government has extended the duty-free window for tur, urad, and yellow peas till March 2026.
Maize and cotton acreage in Karnataka has increased in the ongoing kharif 2025 season. As of June 20, maize area rose 10% to 9.92 lakh hectares (lh) and cotton by 39% to 3.35 lh compared to last year. Paddy and bajra saw slight increases, while jowar and ragi lagged behind. Overall cereal acreage rose to 11.61 lh, driven by maize. Pulses acreage declined to 9.75 lh, with tur and urad down but greengram slightly up. Oilseed acreage fell, with lower sowing of groundnut and soybean. Among commercial crops, sugarcane rose to 5.18 lh, while tobacco dipped slightly.
Tur dal prices have dropped below ₹100/kg in key producing regions like Kalaburgi and Latur the lowest in nearly three years — offering relief to consumers. Prices have fallen nearly 50% from last year due to weak demand and ample supplies, driven by increased imports of tur and yellow peas. Average-quality tur dal is selling at ₹89–90/kg, while top quality is around ₹104–105/kg. Tur imports surged 59% to 12.23 lakh tonnes in FY25, and the duty-free import window is extended till March 2026. Market sentiment remains weak, but prices may rise ahead of the festive season as demand improves. Farmers are also offloading stocks with the new season starting. The availability of cheaper yellow peas is impacting tur dal consumption. While the MSP for tur has been raised to ₹8,000/quintal, farmer groups say the procurement period should also have been extended. As of June 23, 2025, the average retail price stood at ₹122.45/kg, according to government data.
India's basmati rice exports to Iran may reach last year’s level of 0.86 million tonnes, driven by continued demand and discounted pricing. However, about 100,000 tonnes are currently stranded at Kandla and Mundra ports due to the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Exporters face uncertainty as Iran has advised shipments be made at exporters’ risk. Iran typically halts rice import permits during July–September to protect local crops, with new permits expected only from October. Despite reduced imports in recent years due to higher domestic non-basmati production, Iran still prefers Indian basmati rice. Export realisation from Iran remains lower ($881/tonne) than the overall average ($980/tonne), due to Iranian buyers' strong negotiating power and quality variations. Experts say the trade now requires closer scrutiny and better risk management.
Early kharif sowing data shows a rise in overall crop acreage by 1.5 lakh hectares (lh) compared to last year, reaching 89.29 lh as of June 13. Most crops have seen higher coverage, except maize, arhar, and groundnut, which are slightly lower but expected to recover with the monsoon's progress after June 15. Sugarcane area stands at 55.07 lh, paddy at 4.53 lh (up from 4 lh), pulses at 3.07 lh (up from 2.6 lh), and oilseeds at 2.05 lh (up from 1.5 lh). Nutri/coarse cereals are stable, while cotton, groundnut, and arhar have seen slight declines.
India’s coconut product exports grew 25% in FY25, earning ₹4,349 crore, up from ₹3,469 crore last year. Activated carbon led the surge, with ₹2,799 crore in revenue from 1.76 lakh tonnes. However, producers remain concerned as rising costs, driven by expensive charcoal, have pushed Indian prices to $3,600–3,700/tonne—far above China’s $2,500–2,700—raising fears of losing global market share.
Every container entering the country must be supported by thorough risk assessment, logistical planning, and cost control. In 2025, the global fertiliser trade stands at a critical juncture, influenced by geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, evolving demand patterns, and increasing government interventions. The Indian fertiliser market, valued at $45.89 billion in 2025, is projected to reach $62.83 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.49 per cent. For importers and international traders—particularly those focused on India, the world’s largest fertiliser importer—understanding these shifting dynamics is not just advantageous but vital for long-term viability. India’s fertiliser market is vast and expanding steadily at an annual rate of 6–7 per cent, driven by a population exceeding 1.4 billion and mounting pressure on agricultural land productivity. Consequently, fertiliser demand continues to rise. Despite its strong agricultural base, India remains heavily reliant on imports for essential nutrients. Urea, for instance, is still significantly subsidised and partially imported, even as the government takes steps toward self-sufficiency through investments in new domestic plants and the promotion of nano urea to reduce dependence on imports.
In 2024-25, among the top five agricultural items exported to Afghanistan, oil meals led with exports worth $27.37 million, followed by tobacco at $15.91 million, with both commodities recording positive growth. However, exports of spices ($11.92 million), sugar ($8.69 million), and processed fruits including juices ($5.51 million) declined compared to the previous fiscal. India’s overall agri exports to Afghanistan, which continued even under the Taliban-led government despite a lack of formal recognition, dropped by over 20 per cent to $82.6 million in FY25. The fall is attributed to the closure of the Pakistan transit route and potential disruptions via Iran.
Indian tea exporters are concerned after Israel’s recent strikes on Iran, a key market for India’s orthodox tea. With Iran being the second-largest buyer after Iraq, accounting for 30–35 million kg annually, exporters fear disruptions if tensions escalate or fresh US sanctions are imposed. Orthodox tea exports have seen steady growth, contributing to India’s nearly 10% rise in overall tea exports to 254.67 million kg in 2024. However, the ongoing conflict threatens trade routes via the Red Sea and Suez Canal and may lead to falling prices. Orthodox leaf prices have already dropped ₹8/kg in Kochi auctions amid fresh arrivals.
India’s coffee exports have crossed $1.01 billion in the first five months of 2025, up 30% in value despite lower volumes (1.8 lakh tonnes vs 2.1 lakh tonnes last year). The European Union’s recent classification of India as a low-risk country under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is expected to further boost shipments. The EUDR, effective from December 30, 2025, mandates due diligence to ensure products like coffee are not sourced from deforested areas. India's low-risk status eases compliance, reducing the burden on exporters. European buyers are already seeking EUDR-compliant coffee from July 1. A Coffee Board app is expected to help stakeholders meet these requirements.
India’s agricultural transformation is central to national development goals. Though over 50% of Indians work in agriculture, it contributes only 18% to GDP, unlike the service sector, which employs just 12% but contributes over 50%. The government aims to boost farm efficiency, ensure food security, and shift excess agricultural labour to higher-paying urban jobs. This transition demands greater productivity through technology and skilled project management. Certified project managers are already helping optimize land, labour, and capital, driving efficiency, sustainability, and innovation in the sector.
India’s sugar output for the 2025–26 season (October to September) is under threat as early data indicates a marginal decline in sugarcane acreage. While the drop in cultivated area appears slight, adverse weather conditions, inconsistent rainfall, and ongoing agricultural challenges could further impact production, potentially reducing it from 2024–25 levels. As of the first week of May, sugarcane acreage stood at 5.31 million hectares, slightly down from 5.34 million hectares a year ago. This crop will be processed in the upcoming season. Uttar Pradesh, the country’s leading sugar-producing state, reported a decrease in cane area to 2.79 million hectares as of May 8, compared to 2.88 million hectares last year. Although weekly figures in UP often vary from final estimates due to mandi arrivals and mill requirements, the Agriculture Ministry’s final data for 2024–25 also showed a decline to 2.59 million hectares from 2.65 million hectares in 2023–24.
